Import Cargo Volume Expected to Remain Down Year-Over-Year Until Spring

WASHINGTON - Import volume at the nation's major container ports is forecast to see its first month-over-month gain in six months during January but is expected to remain down year over year until spring, according to the Global Port Trackerreport released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we're otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what's ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs."

Following "chronic uncertainty" from increased U.S. tariffs in 2025, the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to still be affected by trade policy, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

"As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances," Hackett said. "This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation."

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units - one 20-foot container or its equivalent - in November, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 2.3% from October and down 6.5% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for December, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 6.6% year over year. November and December are traditionally slow, but the year-over-year declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual in 2025 to avoid tariffs.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

With volume forecast at 2.11 million TEU, January is expected to see the first month-over-month increase since last July as retailers bring in merchandise prior to February's Lunar New Year holiday in Asia but would still be down 5.3% year over year. February is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6% year over year; March at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4%, and April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%. May is forecast at 2.07 million TEU, up 6.2% for the first year-over-year gain since last August.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTrackeror by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation's largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs - 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com

About Hackett Associates
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com