MEMO: Election 2025 Anti-Trans Attacks Fail to Move Voters and Support for Equality Remains

With election night around the corner, the nation's eyes are on key races that will serve as the first true electoral referendum on the out of control MAGA agenda in America. Coming off a 2024 cycle that was steeped in anti-trans messaging, MAGA candidates and affiliated groups have attempted to replicate Donald Trump's anti-trans campaign. In fact, according to AdImpact, Winsome Earle-Sears' campaign and political committees supporting her candidacy have spent millions of dollars combined on anti-trans TV ads in Virginia.

However, those candidates are facing a hard truth: voters believe in equality and there is no magic transphobia switch that will drive people to the ballot box or act as a substitute for addressing urgent crises making life harder for people. Polling continues to show widespread American support for LGBTQ+ equality and a low desire to turn out solely because of anti-trans rhetoric. On the contrary, pro-equality candidates rebutting anti-trans smear campaigns directly and making clear their support for equality is a winning strategy. For example, in this month's Virginia gubernatorial debate, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger parried anti-trans attacks from Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, pivoting to offense and pointing out Earle-Sears' opposition to basic equality for LGBTQ+ Virginians. Earle-Sears confoundingly declared that opposing equality "isn't discrimination." That became the defining moment of the debate.

Transphobia is Not Driving People to Turn Out-and Even Republican Leaders are Noticing

• A nationwide poll by CNN this month showed that people rank transgender policies last among issues surveyed.
• A poll of likely voters in Virginia by Christopher Newport University found issues like the threat to democracy, cost of living, and immigration among the top things on voters' minds. Restrictions on transgender people living their lives were nowhere to be found.
  • That same poll found that despite MAGA candidate Winsome Earle-Sears blanketing the airwaves with anti-trans messaging, voters trust Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger on "transgender policy" over her by +13 points.
• A similar poll from Emerson College also found "transgender issues" low on the priority scale for Virginia voters, nearly fifty points behind the economy and education.
  • As Jatia Wrighten, political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University and expert on voter turnout, told HuffPost: "A lot of the GOP campaigns are falling short because they're focusing on fearmongering on trans students when the economy is absolutely top of mind for voters in this state."
• Another poll from the Washington Post-Schar School found that despite education being a top priority for Virginia voters in November, "only 4 percent of voters name school policies for transgender students as a top issue in their choice for governor."
  • Voters gave Democrats a +10 point edge on who is best on handling education
  • As Mark J. Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, put it, "Youngkin captured the moment, and his opponent helped amplify the issue to Youngkin's favor in a gubernatorial debate. [But] using the same strategy four years later, with covid just a bad memory for many, and a GOP administration in Richmond that has had all that time to address these issues, makes little strategic sense."
• As reported by the New York Times this week, despite Earle-Sears going all-in on anti-trans messaging this cycle, Spanberger continues to hold a commanding lead in the race.
  • Earle-Sears' strategy of doubling down on anti-trans attacks as voters make clear they are most concerned about rising costs and mass firings of federal workers has come under fire from those within her own party. Former (Republican) Lt. Governor Bill Bolling took to Facebook to condemn the approach, writing, "Winsome Earle Sears is out with a new TV ad. Anyone want to guess what it's about? You guessed it, another ad about transgender issues!...Is this the only issue the Sears campaign has to talk about? What about jobs and the economy? What about education, health care and transportation? I think these are the issues Virginians care most about. Does Sears have anything to offer on these issues?...If this is all the Sears campaign has to talk about, I think they are in serious trouble."
• Republican operatives have warned for months that Winsome Earle Sears' campaign strategy of transphobia was missing the mark with voters.
  • "One of the common complaints or observations as to why she hasn't been catching fire is because there's really been no overarching message or theme or even positive vision for the future," said one GOP strategist to The Hill in September. "It's been pretty reactive, and the problem with that is when you don't have your own message or your own brand, you are at the whim of the national winds."
  • Veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth said it is almost as if the Earle-Sears campaign has become a "one-note campaign." "If you look at her website and what she says every day, it's all about Abigail Spanberger and boys in girls' locker rooms," he continued. "It just seems to me that this is not the dominant issue in Virginia today."
• High profile Republican leaders are speaking out against the all-in strategy on anti-trans messaging too. In an interview with NOTUS, Senator Tom Tillis of North Carolina said that transgender issues were not top of mind for voters. "I think that if you take a look at right-of-center, left-of-center voters, they're more pocketbook issues. And I just don't see any one of those issues - unless we have some major event that draws, you know, broader attention to it - I just don't see those as being the margin of error."
  • Another Republican operative, who spoke anonymously, was skeptical as well. "Is this enough to win an election? Honestly, I think the answer is no."

Meanwhile, A Super Majority of Americans Support Equality-At Odds with GOP Candidates in NJ, VA

A 2025 poll from PRRI shows that 67% percent of Americans support marriage equality - a number that has climbed steadily and remained high for more than a decade.

• Despite that, MAGA candidate for New Jersey Governor Jack Ciattarelli has platformed a senior campaign adviser who called for a renewed ban on same-sex marriage this month.
• In Virginia, Earle-Sears confoundingly declared that opposing marriage equality and workplace nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ+ people is "not discrimination."

2024 data from Navigator Research shows strong majority support for LGBTQ+ equality, and deep concern over MAGA attacks on fundamental freedoms.

• Nearly two-in-three Americans support federal nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ+ people, including 58% of independents and 42% of Republicans.
• 70% say they are concerned that politicians are attacking gay and transgender youth to divide us, maintain their political power and control, and score political points, a clear indication that the American people see through the MAGA anti-LGBTQ+ agenda.

A March 2025 survey from Data for Progress shows similar support for freedom and opposition to anti-LGBTQ+ policies.

• A majority of Americans think that families and physicians should be the ones making decisions about medical care for transgender youth, not the government.
• Over 60% of Americans oppose efforts to prosecute teachers for supporting their transgender students.
• Two-thirds of Americans support transgender military servicemembers having access to the health care they need, and a similar number believe that those servicemembers should be treated with respect - not tossed from their jobs for political gain.

According to a 19th News/Survey Monkey poll from April 2025, the vast majority of Americans - nearly 7 in 10 - think that politicians are not informed enough about health care for transgender youth to create fair policies. And nearly half of Americans think that politicians should not be focused on transgender issues at all.

Historically, Anti-Trans Attacks Have Failed

For years, MAGA candidates and political operatives have attempted to weaponize transphobia in order to win elections. But historically, from Kansas to Kentucky, and Georgia to Wisconsin, those attacks have failed.

In a 2024 memo, HRC compiled numerous examples in states across the country of anti-trans campaigns failing at the ballot box.

In Short: Voters Want Leaders, Not Hate

MAGA candidates hope that doubling down on transphobia will power them over the finish line and distract from their inability to articulate plans to address the things keeping people up at night. But the data is clear - voters are looking for candidates with pro-equality values and who have plans to tackle the nation's pressing issues (the economy, education, health care, and more), not hollow campaigns that peddle bigotry to try and divide America and bully our neighbors.