Listless Crop Prices

Last week Tidbits highlighted surging cattle prices this year, hitting record highs. The same cannot be said for crop prices which have been stuck in low gear. Figure 1 plots monthly average corn and soybean prices in Nebraska from January 2020 through May (the latest data available). Corn prices are shown on the left axis while soybean prices are on the right. While current prices are above the lows seen in 2020, they are off considerably from highs seen in early summer 2022. Corn prices are roughly $3.00 per bushel less and soybean prices have fallen $6.00 per bushel. Recent cash corn bids in Nebraska ranged from $3.89 per bushel in the southwest to $4.15 in the northeast. Soybean bids ranged from $9.36 in the northwest to $9.89 in the east. Bids for wheat ranged from $4.31 in the northwest to $4.91 in the south.

Figure 1. Monthly Average Nebraska Corn/Soybean Prices (Jan. 2020-May 2025)

Source: Rolling Prairie Economics using data from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

USDA forecasts project an average corn price at the farm gate of $4.20 per bushel for the 2025/26 marketing year off 15 cents from the 2024 crop year. The average soybean price is estimated at $10.25 compared to $9.85 last year. The latest supply and demand numbers suggest tighter corn stocks but bigger soybean stocks ending the 2025 crop year, assuming demand remains unchanged. Those estimates, though, are predicated on trend-line average yields of 181 bushels per acre for corn (179.3 bushels in 2024) and 52.5 bushels for soybeans (50.7 bushels in 2024). The potential size of this year's corn and soybean crops will factor heavily in price movements over the next 60-90 days. Any hiccups which threaten to reduce yields, assuming demand does not change, could push prices a bit higher. Conversely, potential higher yields will weigh on prices.

Questions are plenty on the demand side of the balance sheet too. Corn exports this year have been higher than most observers expected. New crop corn exports are almost two million metric tons ahead of last year at this time. Will that continue? Will declining cattle numbers affect feed usage? What does the future hold for soybean exports, particularly with China, the world's largest soybean importer? Exports to China are down considerably this year. To date, China has yet to purchase any new crop soybeans. According to Karen Braun of Reuters, the last time China hadn't purchased any new crop soybeans by the beginning of July was 2005. Expanding production and competition from South America should not be overlooked either.

Conditions for corn were rated nearly 75% good to excellent, and soybeans were rated at just over 65% good to excellent for the week ending July 6. That's better than any of the previous five years for corn for the same week. Soybean conditions were better than every year of the previous five except last year. Modeling based on current conditions has estimated the average yield for corn could reach or exceed 181 bushels. With the current crop conditions and uncertainties with demand, it's difficult to foresee prices moving significantly higher even with less than expected production. Generating positive returns for crop producers will be a struggle on this year's crop. (Note: The latest USDA's World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates [WASDE] were released on Friday after this was written.)