10 things to know about the property market: October 2026

IRVINE, Calif., October 29, 2026 - Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest list on the 10 things to know about the property market for October 2026.

The housing market remains caught in a standoff between legacy rates and current borrowing costs. Low legacy rates keep existing homeowners equity-rich and disincentivized to sell, while elevated borrowing costs continue to sideline buyers and contribute to sluggish sales. These pressures are unfolding alongside divergent regional price trends and housing turnover well below historical norms, though financing does not fully explain subdued mobility. At the same time, borrowers are increasingly turning to adjustable-rate mortgages as they look for ways to manage today's higher borrowing costs.

Cotality's October 10 Things to Know report examines how borrowing costs, locked-in equity, and mortgage products are reshaping market stability-and how purchase timing and terms are increasingly dictating long-term household wealth.

Housing Market Trends

1. National home-price growth edged up. U.S. home prices rose 1.8% year over year (up from 1.6% in July), masking continued regional divides. Gains concentrated in affordable, supply-constrained markets like Cleveland (+6.4%), while rising inventory and cooling demand pulled down markets like Austin (-2.1%).

2. Higher mortgage rates deepen regional divides. Supply-constrained markets like Illinois (+6.8%) and Connecticut (+6.3%) posted strong price gains, while Texas declined 0.7% as buyers retreated under mounting monthly payment pressures.

3. Sales slide to 10-year low. Rising mortgage rates drove closed sales down 5.4% year over year in September, pushing combined August and September sales volumes to a 10-year low. Sales fell in 40 of the 50 largest metros, led by Denver (-17.0%), Washington, DC (-12.1%), and Atlanta (-11.0%). New York City was a notable exception, with sales up nearly 1%.

4. FHA backing brings muted build-to-rent (BTR) impact. While BTR developments now qualify for cheaper FHA-insured multifamily financing, the real-world effect on rental supply and pricing will be negligible. While this development would increase the supply of rental housing, and put downward pressure on rents, it would also increase demand. Additionally, lower capital costs cannot bypass bottlenecks like processing delays and restrictive local zoning. With BTR output under 100,000 units annually, new additions will remain a drop in the bucket for the broader rental market.

5. Housing turnover falls well below historical norms. The U.S. housing turnover rate has dropped to just 3.8%, well below the 5.0% post-housing crash average logged between 2011 and 2019. With about 18 million more households in 2025 than in 2013 but roughly the same number of annual home sales, fewer homes are changing hands relative to the size of the market. At a 5% turnover rate, about 1.6 million more homes would sell annually.

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Single-family turnover rate at lowest level since 2011

Data source: Cotality, 2026; Census HVS households; 2026 and 2027 are projections based on low immigration population scenario

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Mortgage Market Trends

6. Wide rate gap perpetuates lock-in effect. With 30-year rates averaging 7.35% in October compared with a 4.33% weighted-average rate on outstanding mortgages in August, the spread remains historically wide. Even as newer originations lift the outstanding average from its 3.34% low in 2022, the gap continues to freeze refinance activity and discourage existing owners from selling.

7. Modern Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) buck the stigma of instability. Today's ARMs carry minimal credit risk thanks to longer fixed periods (5, 7 or 10 years), caps on how much the rate can rise, and stricter underwriting. Serious delinquency on post-2010 ARMs sat below 0.5% in mid-2026 - half the rate of fixed-rate loans - and stayed under 3.0% even during the height of the 2020 pandemic.

8. Home equity lending hits a new high. Record equity levels pushed home equity lending, including both closed-end loans and HELOCs, to its highest dollar volume since 2008. Through the first three quarters of 2026, lenders authorized 1.1 million HELOCs ($215 billion) and originated 361,000 home equity loans ($28 billion). HELOC dollar volume rising 5.5% year over year despite an 8% drop in the number of transactions. Similarly, home equity loan counts fell 36% and volume declined by almost 12%.

9. It's not just mortgages locking up the market. Financing costs alone do not explain depressed mobility; cash buyers are staying put at rates comparable to mortgaged owners. The retention gap between mortgaged and cash buyers remained essentially unchanged-9.1 percentage points for 2017-2019 purchases versus 8.2 points for 2022-2023-proving that non-financing frictions are also driving historically low turnover.

10. Mortgages terms reshape household wealth trajectories. Loan timing is rivaling property appreciation as a primary engine of household net worth. Average 2020 buyers have accumulated roughly $256,000 in equity compared with $170,000 for 2022 purchasers. Add to that the sub-4% legacy rates that pre-2022 buyers secured, and that's yielding substantial monthly savings that allow earlier buyers to invest and build wealth outside their homes.

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About Cotality

Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at  www.cotality.com.  

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