UNL’s Center for Agricultural Profitability in partnership with Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center ...

UNL's Center for Agricultural Profitability in partnership with Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center with the University of Missouri have released their Nebraska Farm Income Outlook report. They project Nebraska Farm Income to increase 55%. This is a $3.35 billion increase from farm income in 2024. However, this increase is more complex than farmers' simply making 55% more than last year. Rather than signaling widespread profit growth for Nebraska farmers and ranchers, much of the increase is attributed to government payments intended to offset last year's losses, especially for crop producers.

A brief look at 2024 sets the stage for farm income this year. Last year, this same report projected farm income to decline 17% or $1.58 billion. That is equal to the government payments received this year that are projected to be around $1.58 billion, making it clear that this year's projected increase largely fills the gap left by last year's downturn in crop receipts. The American Relief Act of 2025 provided $31 billion nationally to farmers. Around $21 billion to aid in natural disasters and around $10 billion in economic assistance payments. These payments were received by crop producers and not livestock producers.

The report states crop receipts are projected to be $213 million lower this year. Part of that is due to weak markets and prices, for example a 6% decline in corn prices. Corn and soybean receipts are projected to drop by a combined $170 million. These two commodities' losses account for around 80% of the crop receipt losses. While livestock receipts are set to increase around $371 million total, almost all of that is from a $398 million dollar increase in cattle receipts. With a less positive outlook, hog, dairy, and egg receipts are projected to decline.

Furthermore, expenses will be increasing for various sectors. The report shows purchased livestock expenses hitting record breaking highs. By 2026, they are expected to be more than double what these expenses were in 2020. Expenses in fertilizer and net rent to landlords are expected to increase $123 million and $81 million respectively.

To wrap everything together, the projected 55% increase in farm income doesn't represent broad financial gains across Nebraska agriculture. For dairy and pork producers, a decline in receipts without the added support from government payments will only apply further pressure to producers and local economies. Increasing expenses and receipts projected to decline in many commodities with already tightened margins have already increased farm lending and operating loans.

Economic uncertainty and ongoing policy and trade developments will likely lead the way in 2025 and may have the power to change this outlook before the end of the year.