Economic Optimism Slips While Company Confidence Holds Firm Amid Ongoing Uncertainty, AICPA and CIMA Survey Finds

NEW YORK (June 4, 2026) - Business executive sentiment reflects a growing divide between macroeconomic concerns and own-company optimism, according to the second-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. While optimism about broader economic conditions softened, confidence in individual organizations continued to edge higher, highlighting a cautious but resilient business outlook.

The survey, which polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers, and other CPAs in executive and senior management roles across U.S. companies, shows U.S. economic optimism declined from 39% in Q1 to 32%, while global optimism fell to 19%. These declines underscore ongoing challenges around inflation, energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, 49% of executives expressed optimism about their own organizations' prospects, signaling continued confidence at the company level.

While optimists point to strong underlying fundamentals and expect geopolitical pressures to ease, many leaders remain cautious as external risks continue to shape the broader outlook.

"Shifts in executive concerns underscore this environment," noted Tom Hood, CPA, CGMA, CITP, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA. "Cost pressures have reasserted themselves."

Cost pressures have moved back to the forefront, with employee and benefit costs again emerging as a primary challenge, alongside inflation and rising materials, supplies, and equipment costs. At the same time, domestic economic conditions have eased somewhat as a top concern, while attention on domestic political leadership has also softened. Availability of skilled talent remains steady, reflecting ongoing workforce challenges, and energy costs have climbed into focus as a newer area of concern.

Cybersecurity continues to gain prominence, while regulatory pressures have moderated slightly. Notably, global economic conditions have re-emerged as a concern after falling off in recent quarters. This marks the first time since Q2 2025 that global conditions have returned to the list, pointing to renewed sensitivity around international volatility and the interconnected nature of today's economic environment.

Challenges remain elevated but are shifting in priority. Domestic economic conditions continue to lead, while cost pressures from labor and materials have intensified, and inflation concerns have eased from prior highs.

Despite these pressures, business leaders are maintaining a steady growth posture. Expansion plans held firm, with 54% of executives expecting growth over the next 12 months. Hiring sentiment also remained largely consistent with recent quarters as talent gaps persist, but fewer executives are hesitant to hire, and more are moving forward with staffing plans, even as a modest increase report having excess staff.

"The data points to a clear divergence. Economic optimism is softening, particularly at the global level, while confidence in individual organizations continues to hold," said Hood. "That contrast reflects a business environment shaped by external uncertainty but supported by steady underlying fundamentals."

The AICPA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, the U.S. Department of Labor's May employment report looks back on the previous month's hiring trends.

Other key findings of the survey:

• Fifty-one percent of executives note that we are already in a recession or will be by the end of 2026, up from a decline to only 36% last quarter.

• The overall hiring picture remains largely similar to recent quarters -- 55% (56% in Q1) of business executives saying they have the right number of employees and 28% (31% in Q1) noting too few.

• Profit and revenue both gave back some gains this quarter. Projected revenue growth for the next 12 months is now expected to be 2.6% (down 3% from Q1) and profit expectations are now projected to be at 1.1% this quarter (down from 1.6% in Q1).

Methodology

The second-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from May 5-27, 2026, and included 212 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA) designation holders in leadership positions, such as chief financial officer or controller. A copy of the report can be found on aicpa-cima.com.

Media Contact:

Bill Ferguson

AICPA and CIMA

919.402.4610

[email protected]