Heading Into 2026 With Measured Expectations

As 2026 approaches, the economy is sending mixed signals to the recreational boating industry. Industry executives see a more predictable environment taking shape, supported by stable demand and firmer revenue expectations. Households, meanwhile, are contending with elevated costs and growing uncertainty about future conditions. These contrasting views create a more complete-and more nuanced-picture of the path ahead for the boating industry.

NMMA's Q3 2025 Marine Leadership Barometer shows an industry that has moved decisively out of crisis mode and cautiously into a more stable environment. Short-term pessimism about the broader economy has eased, with fewer leaders expecting deterioration over the next three months and more anticipating steady conditions. Forty percent of executives now hold a positive twelve-month outlook, up from 32% in Q2, and negative sentiment has fallen sharply. At the same time, roughly 60% of leaders expect their own company's revenue to grow over the next year, while only a small minority expect declines.

Workforce and demand expectations reinforce this growing sense of stability. Hiring plans are rising, and demand expectations have normalized. Across the industry, the narrative has shifted from conditions are worsening to conditions are manageable. This does not mean leaders are relaxed. Their biggest concerns remain consumer demand and policy risk. In Q3, 53% of respondents expected government regulations to negatively affect their business over the next twelve months, and a clear majority of those pointed to trade and economic policy, including tariffs and market access barriers, as the central threat. Boardrooms are planning for growth, but with one eye fixed firmly on Washington and global trade pressures.

At kitchen tables across the country, the same economy feels far more fragile.

The Conference Board's November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.8 points to 88.7, the lowest reading since April. The Present Situation Index, which reflects views on current business conditions and the job market, fell modestly. The real fracture showed up in expectations. The Expectations Index declined to 63.2 and has now spent ten consecutive months below 80, a level that has historically signaled recession risk. Consumers grew more pessimistic about future business conditions, job availability, and their own income prospects, all at once.

Write-in responses reveal what is dominating kitchen-table conversations. Prices, inflation and tariffs top the list. Even with solid employment and wage gains, the economic story unfolding at kitchen tables feels much darker than the one executives see in their order books.

That mood is also reflected in assessments of family finances. Views on current financial conditions fell back toward the lows last seen in August 2024 and expectations for future finances also worsened. While fewer consumers say a recession is very likely in the next 12 months, more now believe the economy is already in recession. Spending intentions show the same tension. Plans to purchase big-ticket goods like cars, appliances, and electronics fell in November after months of relative stability. Even within those categories, buyers are gravitating toward lower-cost options including used cars, lower-priced televisions, and mid-range smartphones.

While the kitchen table feels more anxious than the boardroom, it does not mean industry and consumers are at odds. They are responding to the same forces, just on different timelines and with different emotional cues.

Placed side by side, these perspectives help clarify the outlook for recreational boating in 2026. Industry executives are evaluating a twelve-month horizon shaped by dealer feedback, order books, staffing plans, and capital budgets. The industry has a solid view of the year ahead. Demand is soft but stable for now, revenue expectations are positive, and many companies are ready to carefully and cautiously invest and hire.

Households, however, appear to be living on shorter emotional timelines. Their viewpoint is dominated by weekly headlines, monthly bills, and near-term uncertainty. The same issues industry leaders identify as their top policy risks, including tariffs, trade uncertainty, and shifting policy, are the same issues fueling consumer anxiety about prices and financial stability. The result is a customer base that still wants joy, leisure, and time on the water but feels more hesitant about large and long-term commitments.

For the industry, this gap is both a warning and an opportunity. Big-ticket sales may face more friction, even if underlying interest in boating remains strong. The emotional climate at kitchen tables can slow decision making. However, it also creates a meaningful opening for companies willing to meet consumers where they are. Flexible financing, shared-use models, entry-level product lines, and messaging that positions boating as a high-value alternative to more expensive experiences can help bridge the divide.

Consumers appear to be stepping back from big, one-off discretionary purchases for the time being. November data shows a drop in planned spending on airfare, hotels, and destination trips after October's surge. As uncertainty rises, households are cutting back on travel, large vacations, and other high-cost experiences. This pullback creates an interesting opportunity for boating. Unlike a single vacation that provides enjoyment for a week, a boat can deliver repeated, family-centered experiences across a full season.

In an environment where consumers want joy but are wary of nonrecurring purchases, boating can position itself as a durable entertainment platform that spreads value over many uses. It delivers the kind of return on experience that can feel safer and more rational than a one-time trip with a high price tag. Highlighting the rational advantages alongside emotional benefits, including boating's unique ability to provide meaningful memories and opportunities for wellness, can help consumers more clearly see the value of a boat purchase.

The divergent sentiment between consumers and industry is not a battle between optimism and pessimism. It is a reminder that the same economy looks different depending on where you sit. Boardrooms see a navigable channel with generally known risks. Households feel less certain about the path ahead, even as many underlying economic fundamentals remain intact.

The companies that win in 2026 will be the ones that operate confidently while listening closely and adapting quickly to the anxieties households feel.

Members interested in a deeper dive into these trends are encouraged to register for the Dec. 17 Business Intelligence Market Update webinar through the invite email sent on Dec. 4.

This piece is a result of analysis by NMMA and Shawn Dubravac, economist at Avrio Institute, on behalf of NMMA.

NMMA manufacturer members will have an opportunity to dig deeper into these trends during an exclusive Business Intelligence Market Update webinar on Dec. 17 led by DuBravac. The manufacturer member-only session will provide a timely look at the latest macroeconomic conditions, key marine indicators and what to watch as planning for the year ahead accelerates. Registration is required, manufacturer members should check their email inbox on Monday for the webinar invitation and registration details.