On the Horizon: Three Science and Technology Trends That Could Affect Society

What GAO Found

GAO identified three potentially transformative technologies that are trending toward maturity and may need congressional attention over the next 10 years. These technologies are:

• Neural implants for human augmentation. Currently, neural implants are only available to people with certain medical needs. Future implants might enable direct brain-to-brain communication, hands-free control of computers, or the rapid acquisition of new skills and abilities. General availability of neural implants could compromise users' privacy and security, depending on who can access data from such implants. In addition, differentiating between medical and augmentative uses would involve subjective value judgments and ethical questions. Policymakers could consider a variety of options, including determining whether to propose standards for the ethical development and use of neural implants or explore ways to ensure that privacy and security concerns are addressed.
• General purpose robots. General purpose robotics represents a fundamental shift from task-specific automation to flexible, adaptable machines capable of performing a wide range of tasks and potentially learning new tasks. Such robots could assist with a variety of tasks, including helping maintain infrastructure and assisting with disaster response. But their use could also lead to significant social impacts, such as risks associated with giving robots a level of autonomy in hazardous environments. Policymakers could consider a variety of options, including determining whether to explore a broad range of oversight, risk assessment, or control mechanisms (such as software controls requiring human confirmation) to help mitigate these concerns.
• Orbital debris removal technologies. There are more than 15,000 pieces of orbital debris currently tracked, with more than a million pieces that are too small to track but can still damage satellites and other spacecraft that provide important services. Technology is in development to actively remove, relocate, or repurpose large, non-tumbling debris. This could reduce the risk of a catastrophic cascade of collisions, but would not eliminate it because small or tumbling debris constitute the vast majority of dangerous debris. Additionally, further development and use of novel technologies may be hampered by possible legal difficulties posed by the Outer Space Treaty. Policymakers could consider a variety of options, including supporting targeted research to fill technological gaps or initiating legal analyses to develop solutions to legal difficulties. GAO is not making recommendations but has identified several policy considerations for the Congress and others to weigh as these technologies continue developing.

Why GAO Did This Study

Science and technology are constantly evolving, and there is a need for analysis of emerging trends of the future to help prepare for disruptions that may have major impacts in the lives of Americans. To address this need, GAO developed this report focused on technologies approximately 10 years on the horizon. The goal is to provide foresight into developing technologies that could have significant impacts on Americans.

GAO described developments in these technologies and how they may be affected by various elements which may be useful for policymakers, such as legislative bodies, government agencies, or other groups, to consider. These elements include the five domains in the STEER framework: social impacts, technology drivers, environmental impacts, economic drivers, and the regulatory landscape.

To conduct this work, GAO relied on a review of scientific literature from academic journals and position papers and held semi-structured interviews with eleven experts across the three technologies. GAO relied on the judgment of its engineers and scientists and consideration of the collected information to describe key aspects of the technological trends, including identifying technological developments, market conditions, or economies of scale that could further accelerate the maturity of these new technologies, and considerations for policymakers.