Improving cardiovascular risk prediction in Latin America and the Caribbean: SCORE2-LAC

Key takeaways

• Cardiovascular disease risk prediction models are used to identify people who benefit most from preventive action.
• The Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) risk prediction system implemented in ESC Guidelines is based on data from European populations.
• The ESC and the Inter-American Society of Cardiology (SIAC) are leading a joint initiative to recalibrate SCORE2 using extensive data from Latin America and the Caribbean, resulting in a new region-specific tool: SCORE2-LAC.
• SCORE2-LAC aims to provide accurate risk prediction in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the current burden of cardiovascular disease is high.
  

Ljubljana, Slovenia - 24 April 2026: A preliminary model to improve the prediction of cardiovascular risk in Latin America and the Caribbean was presented today at ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026, [1] the annual congress of the European Association of Preventive Cardiology (EAPC), a branch of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used to identify people who benefit most from preventive action. These models integrate information on risk factors such as age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure and cholesterol levels to provide an estimate of an individual's risk of developing CVD. Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) is the risk prediction model implemented in ESC Guidelines. [2,3] SCORE2 estimates the 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction and stroke) among apparently healthy adults aged 40-69 years without previous CVD or diabetes.

Cardiovascular risk is not uniform across the globe, and the ESC is committed to closing gaps in CVD prevention and care worldwide. The burden of CVD remains high in Latin America and the Caribbean [4] and yet accurate region-specific risk prediction models are lacking. "Models such as SCORE2 were developed using data from European populations," said senior investigator Professor Frank Visseren from the University Medical Center Utrecht, Netherlands. "These models can be useful in other regions, but first they must be recalibrated and validated using extensive, high-quality local data to capture important differences in risk factor distributions and CVD incidence patterns. Through the ESC's Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration, we are working in close partnership with the Inter-American Society of Cardiology (SIAC) to develop SCORE2-LAC, a new model that reflects the diversity and realities of cardiovascular risk across Latin America and the Caribbean."

SCORE2-LAC applies the same methodological framework used previously for the recalibration of SCORE2 for the Asia-Pacific region, [5] while relying on region-specific data from Latin America and the Caribbean.

Doctor Stella Bijkerk from the University Medical Center Utrecht, Netherlands, presented initial details on the development of SCORE2-LAC at ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026. She noted, "Average risk factor levels and mortality data from 32 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have been incorporated and we have begun the process of estimating 10-year CVD incidence based on data from 2.6 million individuals. Over the coming weeks, we will incorporate data from an additional 37 million people from Brazil. External validation is then expected to involve cohorts from at least 8 countries."

On behalf of SIAC, senior investigator Professor Carlos Ignacio Ponte Negretti from La Floresta Clinic, Caracas, Venezuela, said, "This project represents a historic milestone for CVD prevention in our region. For the first time, Latin America and the Caribbean will have a rigorously validated tool, built on local epidemiological data, allowing for more precise and reliable cardiovascular risk assessment. The project also opens up valuable opportunities for research so we can better understand cardiovascular risk across the region and implement further improvement strategies."

The final SCORE2-LAC model is expected to be presented at ESC Congress 2026, which takes place from 28-31 August in Munich, Germany.

ENDS