2025 Hurricane Season Forecast by the Numbers

Something to keep in mind is that these seasonal forecasts apply to the whole Atlantic basin. That includes: the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, there's no reliable or accurate way to forecast where all of the expected tropical cyclones in a season will make landfall before they form. For example, it is not guaranteed that the roughly 17 named storms expected by Colorado State this season will all affect the U.S. coast line.

Tropical Tip: Tropical cyclones have different names across different parts of the world. Hurricanes occur over the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Typhoons occur over the western Pacific Ocean and cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

Two primary factors considered in making seasonal hurricane forecasts are the influence of either El Niño or La Niña and sea surface temperatures.

Currently, there is not expected to be a strong influence from El Niño or La Niña over the course of hurricane season, as conditions are neutral. The presence of El Niño or La Niña can affect how much wind shear there is near the equator. More wind shear, common in El Niño, often leads to fewer tropical cyclones, as it inhibits development. The opposite is true in La Niña.

Without influence from El Niño or La Niña this hurricane season, a driving factor is sea surface temperature. At a simple level, warmer water favors tropical cyclone development.

As of early June, sea surface temperatures were warmer-than-average across parts of the Atlantic basin. This is expected to contribute to above-average activity this season.