What Is The Case For Waiting On Ondas Stock

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Ondas (ONDS) stock closed at $6.20 on October 23, 2026, sitting 55.7% below its highest close of the past year. Shares fell even as the business grew, with second-quarter revenue reaching more than 13 times what it was a year earlier. Buying at this price means believing the sales ramp management has guided to will arrive. So what are you paying for Ondas at $6.20, and why might it pay to wait? The price already assumes third-quarter revenue of about $151 million, against $83.8 million in the second quarter, and the November report will show whether that ramp arrived.

How Much You Pay For Ondas's Sales

Investors are paying 17.8 times Ondas's sales over the past twelve months, close to the 17.9 times buyers paid at the end of June 2025. The S&P 500 trades at 3.2 times sales. While the loss grew in dollars, it shrank as a share of sales: Ondas's operating loss came to 129.4% of its revenue over the past twelve months, against 227.7% a year earlier.

Ondas did report a net profit of $168 million over those twelve months, which puts the stock at 18.5 times earnings. That profit came from outside the business, because operations lost $225 million and used $161 million of cash. This leaves sales, rather than earnings, as the metric buyers are paying for. In fiscal 2025, nearly all of Ondas's sales came from Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS), which brought in $49.8 million of the company's $50.7 million. Acquisitions factor into the recent jump, and management said revenue grew about 85% on a pro forma organic basis in the second quarter.

What The Price Expects From Ondas's Third Quarter

Analysts expect third-quarter revenue of about $151 million, which falls inside management's guide of $140 million to $155 million. That estimate sits above the guide's $148 million midpoint, and even the guide's low end is far above the $83.8 million Ondas reported for the second quarter. Management also raised its full-year revenue target to $525 million to $550 million, up from at least $390 million in May.

Management points to orders already in hand: pro forma backlog, counting the DZYNE and Cyberhawk acquisitions, stood at $757 million on June 30, 2026. Yet it also expects some gross margin pressure in the second half from product mix and excess capacity it recently acquired.

How Ondas Stock Has Moved After Earnings Reports

Ondas is expected to report in November 2026, covering the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Its recent reports have moved the stock both ways. Measured from the close on each report day, shares rose 8.1% over the next two trading days after the March 30, 2026 report. They fell 13.5% after the May 14 report, and rose 1.0% after the August 13 report. Those figures leave out the report-day session, and the stock moved 27% on May 14 itself.

Market shocks have moved the stock further. During the 2025 US Tariff Shock, Ondas stock fell 53.0% from peak to low, compared with 19.0% for an S&P 500 fund over the same dates.

Which Ondas Numbers Will Settle The Timing?

When Ondas reports in November 2026, its third-quarter revenue is the number to watch against management's guide of $140 million to $155 million. Gross margin, which stood at 43.1% in the second quarter, is the other number to watch in that report.

Does This Mean You Should Act On ONDS?

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