EIA - Energy Information Administration
05/12/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 05/12/2026 10:04
EIA updates forecast amid continued Mideast disruption; will publish new energy security datasets
U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 12, 2026
EIA updates forecast amid continued Mideast disruption; will publish new energy security datasets
The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, reflecting a continued disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows.
On Wednesday, May 13, EIA will release a new energy security dataset, which will be published quarterly, with information on global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG). This new dataset will typically be published separately from the primary STEO release, based on the availability of underlying datasets necessary for the analysis.
"The timing of resumed oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent rate at which Middle Eastern producers restore output are key factors influencing EIA's price forecast through year end," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said. "Our new datasets tracking global strategic stocks and shipping chokepoints for petroleum and gas markets will offer timely context and additional depth."
Key takeaways from the May STEO are below.
| U.S. energy market indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $69 | $95 | $79 |
| Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) | $3.10 | $3.88 | $3.62 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.6 | 13.6 | 14.1 |
| Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) | $3.53 | $3.50 | $3.18 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| Shares of U.S. electricity generation | |||
| Natural gas | 40% | 39% | 40% |
| Coal | 17% | 16% | 15% |
| Nuclear | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Conventional hydropower | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Wind | 11% | 11% | 12% |
| Solar | 7% | 8% | 9% |
| Other energy sources | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| U.S. GDP (percentage change) | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
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Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2026 Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. |
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- OPEC. The UAE left OPEC on May 1, 2026. Beginning with this STEO, UAE production figures will no longer be included in OPEC totals for historical or forecast periods in this outlook.
- Global oil production. An estimated 10.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain were collectively shut in last month. EIA's forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed through late May, with traffic gradually resuming in June and shipments returning to pre-conflict levels later in the year.
- Crude oil price forecast. Brent crude oil spot prices rose in April, reaching $138 per barrel (b) on April 7 and averaging $117/b for the month on the back of reduced global oil supplies. EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), keeping Brent near $106/b in May and June.
- Retail gasoline and diesel prices. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $3.88 per gallon (gal) in 2026 and $3.62/gal in 2027.
- Propane inventories. U.S. propane inventories reached record highs in 2025 and are expected to stay above average through 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand. U.S. propane exports will likely increase through 2027, partly as buyers in Asia replace supply from the Middle East.
- LNG exports. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity increased by about 0.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in April as capacity expanded.
- Natural gas production. U.S. marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 Bcf/d in 1Q26, up 4% more than the same period last year. Output is expected to keep rising through 2027, supported by associated gas linked to high crude oil prices.
- Electricity consumption. U.S. electricity consumption is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2027. This growth is primarily driven by the commercial sector, which is anticipated to surpass residential electricity consumption for the first time on record in 2027. Industrial demand is also growing, although at a slower pace.
- Electricity prices and generation. EIA expects residential electricity prices to rise by 5% in 2026 and continue increasing at a slower rate in 2027, with the most significant price hikes expected along the East Coast.
The full May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.
The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, [email protected]
EIA Press Contact: Morgan Butterfield, [email protected]
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