Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy today released a new, in-depth report, An Inflection Point for the U.S. Power Sector, finding that America's power pipeline is shifting sharply toward fossil fuels after years of clean power growth. Clean energy still dominates new power coming online today, reflecting projects planned and developed over several years.

Solar and wind also remain among the most cost-effective sources of new electricity, with solar and battery storage offering some of the fastest, most affordable options for meeting rising demand. However, growing electricity demand driven in part by rapid growth in data centers, and Trump administration policies that have terminated wind and solar credits, block or delay clean energy development, mandate continued operation of coal plants slated for retirement and support fossil fuel investment are fueling this dramatic shift.

"Filling America's power pipeline with more fossil fuels could lock in higher costs, volatile fuel prices, and more pollution for decades," said David Villagrana, Lead Counsel for Clean Energy Tax Solutions at Environmental Defense Fund. "Instead, we should clear the way for clean power, one of the fastest, most affordable ways to meet rising demand and keep electricity and health costs down."

Key findings include:

• The power pipeline is shifting toward fossil fuels. Fossil power accounted for just 5% of new capacity in 2024, but planned fossil capacity has since climbed to its highest level since 2016, now accounting for approximately 30% of the development pipeline. If current projects come online as planned, fossil fuels, primarily natural gas, could account for about 70% of new power capacity coming online in 2030, approaching levels not seen since the early 2010s.
• Fossil power development is accelerating as clean power faces growing headwinds. Developers now expect to build about 68 gigawatts (GW) of new fossil capacity between 2026 and 2030, nearly all of which is natural gas, up 45% in just six months. Clean power cancellations have also risen since 2022, reaching 4.9% of planned and under-construction capacity in 2025, while developers canceled just 2.9% of fossil projects in the pipeline that year. Gas turbine shortages, rising costs, and uncertainty about future electricity demand could still prevent some fossil projects from being built.
• Aging coal plants are staying online longer. Plant owners had planned to retire 8.5 GW of coal capacity in 2025, but less than 1 GW ultimately retired, the lowest level since 2009. Federal policies could further slow coal retirements, while the Trump administration has announced $850 million to support coal facilities, including two proposed new plants.
• A fossil-heavy buildout could significantly raise electricity costs. New wind and utility-scale solar average about $68-69 per megawatt-hour over their lifetimes, compared with $90 for new combined-cycle natural gas power. Greater reliance on fossil fuels could expose consumers to higher construction costs and volatile fuel prices.

Figure 1: New Fossil Power Capacity Expected to Come Online Through 2031, as a Share of All Power Plant Types

Source: Clean Economy Tracker, Energy Information Administration

The report finds that decisions being made now will shape the cost, emissions, and reliability of America's power system for decades. Clearing barriers to clean power and transmission can help meet rising electricity demand while keeping costs down and limiting exposure to volatile fuel prices and increased climate pollution.

The analysis uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual Electric Generator Report and Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, compiled through Atlas Public Policy's Clean Economy Tracker. Data reflect projects reported as of the second quarter of 2026. Additional reports and analysis are available at https://www.edf.org/state-us-clean-energy.

Read the full report: An Inflection Point for the U.S. Power Sector