NOAA Predicts a Cooler, Wetter Winter. But Farmers’ Almanacs Say the Story Might Vary

After a warm summer and a mild start to fall, winter 2025-2026 is shaping up to tell a different story. According to NOAA's Winter Outlook, much of the northern U.S. should prepare for colder and wetter conditions, while the southern states can expect a warmer, drier season. But not everyone's forecast agrees; both the Old Farmer's Almanac and The Farmers' Almanac have their own take on what's ahead, and they don't all see eye to eye.

NOAA's outlook points to a weak La Niña developing in the Pacific, a climate pattern known to push colder air into the northern states while keeping the southern tier relatively mild. La Niña conditions are expected to linger through February before returning to neutral in early spring.

In NOAA's forecast, the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Northwest could see below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation, setting the stage for a snowier season. Regions like Montana, North Dakota, and northern Minnesota are most likely to feel the chill, while the southern U.S. and Florida are expected to see a warmer-than-usual winter. NOAA also anticipates wetter-than-average conditions across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, and drier-than-average weather stretching from California through the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Meanwhile, the Old Farmer's Almanac, which has been publishing weather predictions since 1792, paints a calmer picture. It calls the upcoming winter "calm and gentle," expecting slightly milder temperatures across most of the country, with only a few regions - from the Appalachians through the Southeast and Florida - seeing a sharper chill.

On the other hand, The Farmers' Almanac warns that this winter might be anything but quiet. Its editors describe the season as "a wild ride," with dramatic temperature swings, widespread snow, and cold outbreaks stretching from the northern Plains to New England. It even gives this year's forecast a tagline: "Chill, snow, repeat." The publication predicts classic winter conditions across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and cold, snowy weather in much of the Northwest.

Both the Almanacs and NOAA agree on one point; many parts of the North should brace for a chillier, wetter winter. NOAA forecasters say that the weak La Niña "slightly elevates the potential for colder temperatures in the central and eastern U.S.," particularly across the Upper Midwest.

Why Preparation Matters for Businesses

For businesses that depend on fuel-powered vehicles, generators, or machinery, these forecasts are more than just weather trivia, they're a call to prepare. Cold temperatures can cause diesel fuel to thicken or even gel, leading to clogged filters, frozen fuel lines, and costly downtime. When temperatures dip, even a small delay in preparation can impact deliveries, operations, or emergency response capabilities.

To prevent cold-related issues, companies often blend or treat fuel with winter additives designed to lower the fuel's pour point and prevent waxing. These cold flow improvers and anti-gel agents keep diesel flowing smoothly, ensuring reliable start and consistent power even in subzero conditions. Additives can also include moisture dispersants and detergents to prevent water buildup and keep systems clean through the season. You can click here to learn more about how to prepare for the cold weather.

Your Trusted Partner

Whether NOAA's data-driven forecast or the almanacs' time-tested predictions prove right, one thing is clear, winter preparedness is key. From maintaining fuel quality to protecting vehicles and equipment, now is the time for operators to check tanks, plan additive use, and get ahead of the freeze.

Mansfield offers extensive coverage and has a proven track record of delivering effective solutions for businesses facing winter fueling challenges. By working closely with Mansfield, you can benefit from our industry expertise, cutting-edge additives like ColdPro, and a commitment to delivering the solutions you need to keep your operations running smoothly during even the harshest winter conditions. With Mansfield, you can navigate the complexities of winter-fueling with confidence and peace of mind. Contact us today!