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Most Hawaiʻi residents believe sea level rise is already affecting the state, expect major impacts within their lifetimes, and support significant changes to how and where development occurs. At the same time, many remain uncertain about how large-scale adaptation should be financed.

That's according to a new statewide survey released by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO), the first representative study to measure public beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences related to sea level rise across all four counties. The report, Public Views on Sea Level Rise in Hawaiʻi: Results from a Statewide Survey, draws on responses from 1,314 adults surveyed in summer 2025 and provides the most comprehensive snapshot to date of how residents view sea level rise and the policy choices it raises.

"Our findings show that Hawaiʻi residents overwhelmingly accept that sea level rise is happening," said Colin Moore, political scientist and associate professor at UHERO. "There is broad agreement that action is needed. The harder question is not whether to act, but how to structure adaptation in a way that is credible, fair and sustainable over time."

Among the study's key findings:

• 89% of residents believe sea level rise is happening, including large majorities of Democrats (97%), Independents (90%) and Republicans (80%).
• Nearly half say sea level rise is already affecting people in Hawaiʻi, and more than 80% expect impacts within the next 25 years.
• 83% believe sea level rise will have catastrophic consequences for the state within 50 years.
• About 90% support restricting development in flood-prone areas, and more than 80% favor prioritizing inland development over continued coastal expansion.
• 81% would be willing to relocate from high-risk areas if offered fair compensation.
• Only 45% say they would be willing to pay higher taxes or fees to fund neighborhood-level protection projects.

"People clearly recognize the risks and support major shifts in coastal policy, including limits on development and public assistance for relocation," said Ketty Loeb, a co-author and assistant professor at the UH Mānoa Institute for Sustainability and Resilience. "At the same time, many residents report feeling poorly informed about sea level rise and doubt that government agencies are fully prepared. That combination creates both an opportunity and a responsibility for policymakers to engage the public more directly about what adaptation will involve."

Support for government assistance

The survey also found strong support for government assistance to property owners in vulnerable areas, including expanded access to flood insurance, incentives to elevate or flood-proof buildings, and public funding to support voluntary relocation. Residents were more divided on shoreline armoring, with narrow majority support for private seawalls but much stronger backing for seawalls protecting public infrastructure such as roads and utilities.

"Hawaiʻi residents are keenly aware of sea level rise, and they are pragmatic about what lies ahead," said Zena Grecni, researcher with Pacific RISA and co-author of the report. "They support protecting or adapting communities where possible and relocating when necessary. What remains uncertain is how the costs of those choices should be shared across households, communities, and levels of government."

The research team also included Victoria Keener of Pacific RISA and Arizona State University. Funding for the project was provided by the Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University.

The full report is available on the UHERO website.

UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa's College of Social Sciences.

VIDEO: (1:47)

BROLL:

0:00-1:47 - Video and photos of sea level rise, coastlines and coastal erosion

SOUNDBITES:

Ketty Loeb, co-author and assistant professor at the UH Mānoa Institute for Sustainability and Resilience

(0:17)

"About 83% think that sea level rise impacts will have a catastrophic effect on Hawaiʻi within the next 50 years. And they also want policymakers to act now. They don't feel very aware of the coming impacts. They don't know what's going to be happening."

Colin Moore, political scientist, associate professor at UHERO and co-author of the report

(0:15)

"This is the first statewide survey of what residents think about sea level rise. Do they believe it's happening? What policies do they favor? And what we found is overwhelmingly Hawaiʻi residents believe sea level rise is happening. 9 in 10 say yes. They're also very concerned about it."

Zena Grecni, researcher with Arizona State University and co-author of the report

(0:14)

"Residents are pragmatic about the future. They really support a range of options to adapt and are even willing to relocate, but the big question that remains and is weighing on the public's mind is who pays for these strategies."