Healthy Jobs Report for March, Big Questions Loom Moving Forward

By SBE Council at 4 April, 2025, 6:00 pm

by Raymond J. Keating -

The March employment report showed solid job gains in both surveys that are included in the report.

The establishment survey estimated that nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000. That was higher than the monthly average of 158,000 over the previous 12 months.

The gains came in health care (+54,000), social assistance (+24,000), retail trade (+24,000), and transportation and warehousing (+23,000). While federal government employment declined (-4,000), all major industry sectors experienced no growth. Also, the nonfarm payroll gains were revised down for January and February by a total of 48,000.

Meanwhile, the household survey - which is more comprehensive, and better captures small business and startup activity - pointed to employment gains of 201,000 in March, along with an increase of 232,000 in the labor force.

Two key measures from the household survey are the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate. The March employment-population ratio was unchanged from February at 59.9 percent. But it was down from 60.3 percent in March 2024, and remains short of the pre-pandemic level of 61.2 percent.

As for the labor force participation rate of 62.5 percent in March, it was up from 62.4 percent in February, but down from 62.7 percent a year ago and short of the pre-pandemic level of 63.3 percent.

Of course, the unfortunate question is: Was this March jobs report the quiet before the tariff storm? As the full implications of these unprecedented tariff increases play out, the chances for recession, and therefore job losses, will jump.

Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. He is the author of " The Weekly Economist " book series, and 10 Points from Walt Disney on Entrepreneurship .