Triple-I Report: Lower-Risk Parcels Can Be Found in Wildfire-Prone California Communities

The Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) today published a whitepaper addressing wildfire insurance access in underserved areas of California, one of the most pressing challenges facing the Golden State's volatile property insurance market.

The study, Getting Granular to Find Lower-Risk Properties Amid Wildfire Perils, comes at a critical time as California continues to grapple with regulatory obstacles related to actuarially sound underwriting and pricing. Using Guidewire HazardHub predictive Wildfire Score methodology, Triple-I's research demonstrated how granular geospatial data analysis can identify lower-risk properties, even in areas traditionally considered high-risk.

"The traditional approach to wildfire risk assessment has left many Californians without access to affordable property insurance coverage," said Dale Porfilio, Chief Insurance Officer, Triple-I. "Our research shows that with more detailed, property-level analysis, insurers can confidently offer coverage in areas previously deemed too risky."

The report examines three ZIP codes identified by the California Department of Insurance (CDI) as "undermarketed" by insurers: Los Angeles (90210), Mendocino (95490), and El Dorado (95667).

The Triple-I analysis of HazardHub insights reveals strong fire-suppression success rates of 90%, 95%, and 97%, respectively, in these areas, suggesting many properties are less risky than previously thought.

"To sustainably write insurance in California and other wildfire-prone states, insurers need access to granular property-level data, modern wildfire risk models, and a regulatory environment that embraces innovation," said Leo Tenenblat, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Data and Analytics at Guidewire. "The Triple-I analysis highlights how next-generation tools and data can uncover lower-risk properties-even in high-risk areas-empowering insurers to expand coverage confidently and responsibly."

Key findings from the Triple-I study include:

California's insurance availability challenges stem largely from Proposition 103, regulatory interpretation of which has restricted insurers' ability to offer coverage at actuarially sound rates, which are sufficient to pay expected future losses.

Wildfire mitigation and home hardening can reduce the risk of wildfire damage by up to 70%.

Granular risk assessment incorporates all vegetation types, drought conditions, and fire-suppression success rates in addition to more traditional variables like fuel density, slope, and aspect.

The California FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort, has become increasingly important but is not a sustainable long-term solution.

The Triple-I's research supports the CDI's Sustainable Insurance Strategy, which requires insurance companies to offer homeowners coverage in California's under-served areas if they want to use advanced, forward-looking wildfire models in their rate filings. To meet this requirement, insurers must write policies in those areas equal to at least 85% of their total market share across the state. If a carrier has 10% market share in the state, they must have 8.5% of the "under-marketed" area, which makes up about 15% of properties in the state for a 1.275% share of the market, less than 1.3% of their portfolio.

The report concludes that addressing insurance availability/affordability challenges in California requires a multi-pronged approach with a focus on high-quality, reliable data that allows for targeted risk assessment at the property level.

About Insurance Information Institute

With more than 50 insurance company members - including regional, super-regional, national and global carriers - the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) is the #1 online source for insurance information in the U.S. The organization's website, blog and social media channels offer a wealth of data-driven research studies, white papers, videos, articles, infographics and other resources solely dedicated to explaining insurance and enhancing knowledge.

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About The Institutes

The Institutes are a global not-for-profit comprising diverse affiliates that educate, elevate and connect people in the essential disciplines of risk management and insurance. Through products and services offered by The Institutes' nearly 20 affiliated business units, people and organizations are empowered to help those in need with a focus on understanding, predicting and preventing losses to create a more resilient world.