Alaska SBDC’s 8th annual Small Business Survey reveals dramatic drop in business confidence and financial outlook in 2025

Anchorage, Alaska, May 8, 2025 - The Alaska Small Business Development Center (SBDC) at UAA has released its 8th Annual Small Business Survey, alongside a new, first-ever "2025 Quick Pulse" survey. Together, the findings reveal a sharp reversal in small business confidence, economic outlook, and financial outlook in the first months of 2025.

The Small Business Survey, conducted in late 2024, captured a snapshot of a growth-minded business community of nearly 960 small businesses across 92 communities, covering 75% of Alaska's industries. But by April 2025, responses from a re-engaged group of 273 businesses (29% of the original sample) told a very different story.

"In just four months, there's been a significant shift in both the economic conditions Alaska businesses face and how they view their future," said Jon Bittner, state director of the Alaska SBDC. "We knew that releasing last year's data alone would not reflect the reality that Alaska's entrepreneurs are facing right now. So we went back to get real-time insight into how they're being affected with our 2025 Quick Pulse survey."

Key findings

• Business optimism plunged. In late 2024, 60% of businesses expected good or very good financial conditions in the coming year. By April 2025, only 46% remained optimistic.
• Expectations for Alaska's state economy showed an unprecedented swing, representing the highest level of economic pessimism ever recorded in the survey's eight-year history.
• Businesses expecting decline increased from 25% to 63%, and those expecting improvement declined from 46% to 26%.
• The 2025 Quick Pulse survey also measured the direct impact of recent tariffs on Alaska's uniquely vulnerable business ecosystem: 61% of businesses report supplier price increases due to tariffs, 48% have implemented their own price increases in response, and 35% are attempting to absorb higher costs without raising prices.
• For the first time in the survey's history, political uncertainty emerged as a top-three challenge facing Alaska businesses, joining inflation and rising operating costs at the forefront of concerns.

"This is the first time political uncertainty has cracked the top three challenges," said Bittner. "Even during COVID, it didn't come close. This shows businesses aren't just responding to market conditions-they're reacting to a broader sense of instability."

The full report includes charts and visuals that highlight the rapid four-month shift in Alaska's small business climate. It's available now at online.

The Alaska SBDC remains committed to helping business owners navigate this evolving landscape with free one-on-one advising, practical training, and connections to capital and support networks.

About the Alaska SBDC

Alaska Small Business Development Center (SBDC) at the UAA Business Enterprise Institute provides expert business assistance and resources to empower Alaskan entrepreneurs and small businesses for long-term success. Through free one-on-one support, specialized training, and a statewide partner network, the Alaska SBDC helps small businesses launch, grow, and thrive.