Can Joby Aviation Stock Double From Here

For questions about this article or underlying research, email [email protected].

Joby Aviation (JOBY) already runs a business you may not link to it, the passenger flight service Blade. Whether the stock can double depends partly on how far Blade grows. A double would not be new for this stock, which rose 100% or more within 3 of the last 5 calendar years. Yet you probably still see Joby as an air taxi maker working toward type certification, and the shares lost 62.7% over the past twelve months. So how much is Blade already bringing in?

Most Of Joby's Q3 2026 Sales Came From Blade

Joby reported revenue of $55.1 million for the third quarter of 2026, up 144% from a year earlier. Management said on its November 4, 2026 call that the quarter's revenue came primarily from Blade. Blade flew more than 44,000 passengers in that quarter, the most in any quarter in its history. Its New York Airport service led the way, with passengers up 61% from a year earlier.

That growth now shows in the full year. Management raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $135 million to $140 million, up from $115 million to $125 million. So Joby already sells flights, while its own air taxi is still working toward its first paying passengers.

Joby Still Spends Far More Than It Sells

The worry for a Joby holder is cash, and Blade does not answer it yet. Over the twelve months ended September 30, 2026, Joby posted an operating loss of $979 million, more than six times its revenue of $149 million. Management expects the second half of 2026 to use $385 million to $415 million of cash.

Joby ended the third quarter with about $2.2 billion in cash and short-term investments, and part of that came from selling new shares. Management said net proceeds reached about $128 million in that quarter alone. Its diluted share count rose 41.5% from the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2026, so each share now holds a smaller slice of the company. Even after the fall, the stock trades at 38.7 times sales, against 3.2 times for the S&P 500, and a P/E means nothing while Joby loses money.

Where Could Joby Disappoint?

The nearest soft spot is the fourth quarter, which management called seasonally quiet for Blade, adding that weather can affect it. The fourth quarter of 2025 also included roughly $8 million of one-time demonstration revenue in Japan, and management said it is being prudent about the rest of the year. The raised guide implies fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 million to $22 million, against $30.8 million a year earlier.

The stock adds its own risk in a sell-off. In the 2022 inflation shock Joby fell 51%, against 24% for the S&P 500 ETF. In the 2025 tariff shock it fell 30%, against 19%.

Management expects to begin the final stage of type certification in the first half of 2027. Blade brought in most of Joby's third-quarter revenue, and Joby's 2026 revenue, against the raised guide, is the number to watch when the company is expected to report in February 2027.

Not Sure Joby Aviation Is Worth It At This Price?

You don't have to bet on one stock to earn. The Trefis Income Solution owns 50 dividend stocks that yield about 3x the S&P 500, each with at least 10 straight years of dividends.

See If It Fits Your Plan

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.