The impact of Los Angeles wildfires: U-M experts can comment

EXPERTS ADVISORY

Multiple wildfires are burning across the Los Angeles area, taking lives, destroying property, affecting air quality and displacing thousands of people.

University of Michigan experts in environment, engineering, public health, and disaster relief and preparedness are available to discuss.

ENVIRONMENT AND ENGINEERING

Ann Jeffers is an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the College of Engineering. Her research focuses on structures subjected to extreme load events, especially fire, as well as various topics in fire safety engineering.

"The dry climate combined with the Santa Ana winds are producing wildfires that are more severe than typical in Southern California," she said. "Furthermore, the wind is in a direction that is pushing the wildfire front directly toward areas that are densely populated, forcing many people to evacuate. Not only is there a threat of safety, homes will likely be lost as well as other structures of importance to the community.

"The wildfire hazard is one that we need to rethink from an engineering perspective so that we can better assess the risk to communities and plan accordingly. This of course can only be done when the threat is not imminent. For now, people need to heed evacuation orders and prioritize safety."

Contact: [email protected]

Frank Marsik is an associate research scientist of climate and space sciences and engineering and meteorologist at the College of Engineering. He can comment on the unusual drought and weather patterns causing the wildfires.

"Southern California has been exceptionally dry this fall and winter-the average monthly rainfall this November was 10 times below the climatological average, and December was 25 times below the average. These moderate drought conditions have created plenty of fuel for wildfires," he said.

"At the same time, a broad area of high pressure across the western U.S is combining with a weak, low-pressure center over northern Mexico to drive strong northeasterly winds over the mountains of Southern California. The strengthened winds dry and warm the air as it moves over the mountains and descends westward toward the coast, and are driving the fires toward high population areas along the coast. The winds are expected to weaken somewhat overnight, but the potential for strong, gusty winds tomorrow (albeit weaker than today), has resulted in the National Weather Service issuing a Red Flag Warning through Thursday."

Contact: [email protected]

Ruiwei Jiang is an associate professor of industrial and operations engineering at the College of Engineering who studies methods and applications for power system planning and operations.

"The distribution grids have become a significant cause of wildfires under wildfire-prone weather conditions such as high winds, drought and high temperatures," he said. "Under those conditions, small sparks and arcs can be triggered by a downed powerline, contact with plants, or aging power grid components such as switches, insulators and transformers. In just tens of minutes, the dry and warm weather can further help the sparks and arcs become more significant and eventually start a fire.

"While we don't yet know the cause of the current fires, here are some ways to prevent grid-triggered fires. First, we can harden the distribution grid by burying or coating the powerlines, which prevents fires caused by downed power lines and vegetation contact. Second, we can invest in upgrading grid equipment before it fails, or in monitoring the equipment to better predict when it will fail. Third, we can install switches on power lines in order to reconfigure the grid and accordingly reroute the power flow around the more wildfire-prone regions. Finally, as a last resort, we can temporarily shut off power service in wildfire-prone regions to avoid grid-triggered fires."

Contact: [email protected]

Jonathan Overpeck is an interdisciplinary climate scientist and dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability. He is an expert on climate and weather extremes, and the impacts of climate change and options for dealing with it. He served as a lead author on the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 and 2014 reports.

"The current North American wildfire season is surging across the western U.S. and Canada, made worse by the warming and drying effects of human-caused climate change," he said. "As climate change worsens, so too does the risk of ever larger and more severe wildfires.

"The growing wildfire crisis is also leading to significant declines in air quality inside. Moreover, there has been a steady growth over recent time in devastating consequences for human infrastructure and communities where fires are occurring. Erosion, landslides and water contamination are also becoming larger problems as climate change-supercharged wildfire seasons continue to get worse.

"Perhaps the most troubling aspect of our growing wildfire crisis is that we know enough to predict where, and even sometimes when, catastrophic wildfires are likely to occur. For example, we knew days in advance that the horrible fires now taking place in California were likely to take place and be unusually challenging. More attention in society needs to be placed on using our scientific knowledge to save lives, infrastructure, and livelihoods."

Contact: [email protected]

Richard Rood, professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the College of Engineering, can discuss the intersections of wildfires and climate, and climate and society.

Contact: [email protected]

HEALTH

Sue Anne Bell is a nurse practitioner and associate professor at the School of Nursing. Her research focuses on the long-term impact of disasters and public health emergencies on health, particularly among older adults. She is clinically active in disaster response through the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services National Disaster Medical System with over a dozen recent deployments including to the COVID-19 response, Hurricane Maria and Irma and past California wildfires.

"The images from the Los Angeles fires are beyond frightening, showing that climate threats are no longer about what might occur anymore, but about what is happening now," she said. "What is critically important now is to support affected communities as the emergency response is in full swing. Efforts should focus on the immediate and long-term needs of local residents, and on those who will most be affected by the disaster events within these communities, such as older adults and people with chronic health conditions."

Contact: [email protected]

Sara Adar, associate professor of epidemiology at the School of Public Health, has researched the effects of air pollution on health. She has studied the link between toxic air pollution and dementia and brain health, and found that wildfires are a top source of air pollution-along with farming activities-and that the pollution they produce is more neurotoxic than other types of pollution.

"We saw in our research that all airborne particles increased the risk of dementia but those generated by agricultural settings and wildfires seemed to be especially toxic for the brain," she said. "Our findings indicate that lowering levels of particulate matter air pollution, even in a relatively clean country like the United States, may reduce the number of people developing dementia in late life.

"Given that the development of dementia could take a long time, this study mainly aimed to provide evidence for policymakers to reduce exposures to these sources of emissions."

Contact: [email protected]

MeiLan Han is a professor of medicine and chief of the Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care at Michigan Medicine. Han, who is also a spokesperson for the American Lung Association, can discuss the effects of poor air quality on lung health and other potential impacts on cardiovascular health and susceptibility to infections, as well as protective measures against negative effects of air pollution.

"The groups I worry about are those at high risk, like children, the elderly and especially pregnant women," she said. "If the air quality index is very high, you should consider evacuating if you are able to, especially if you are in one of these groups. If you are not in an evacuation zone, use an air filter and be sure your house is shut up tight. Wearing an N95 or KN95 can also provide good protection against harmful particulates. In the coming days, those with lung conditions like asthma and COPD should make sure they have enough of their maintenance medications on hand."

Contact: [email protected]

Michelle Riba is a clinical professor of psychiatry at the Medical School, a psychiatrist at Michigan Medicine's Rogel Cancer Center and member of the Eisenberg Family Depression Center.

"Right now, we have to be in an emergency mode-helping to do whatever we can in terms of sending financial, material and emotional support to help citizens and first responders," she said. "This is traumatic for those in California, but also for their relatives and friends. It's natural to feel scared and helpless even if you're just watching this on the news and social media. We should make sure that young children and adolescents don't get too much of a dose of these traumatic scenes, and get their questions addressed by trusted adults.

"It is also a good time for families to discuss what to do in a fire or other emergency no matter where they live, by checking on fire extinguishers and remembering how to use them, reducing fire hazards at home, and updating or making a family evacuation plan, and making sure everyone knows how to put it into action.

"There is something called bystander trauma: Even if we aren't there, we might feel that somehow we are there. Past traumas can be reawakened. Each of us should check ourselves and our loved ones and friends. If we see symptoms of post traumatic stress, such as hypervigilance, sleep problems, depression, anxiety, jumpiness, we should see our primary care clinicians or other mental health clinicians.

Contact: [email protected]

Polly Gipson Allen is a clinical associate professor of psychiatry at the Medical School and a child psychologist who directs the U-M Trauma and Grief Clinic.

"No matter whether they are close to the scene of the disaster or far away, caregivers of children and adolescents can use the CALM method to help get themselves and their child through in a trauma-informed, evidence-based way," she said. "CALM stands for Communicate, Active, Learn and Model, and starts with asking what a child understands about the situation, sharing simple and honest information, helping them share their feelings, and validating their feelings. It encourages keeping daily structures and being on the lookout for signs of stress, and taking time to take care of yourself so you can help the children who rely on you."

Contact: [email protected]

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