CBO - Congressional Budget Office
02/10/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 02/11/2026 12:11
Long-Term Budget Projections Feb 2026
Contents
| This file presents data from the tables in CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 and provides supplemental data. |
| www.cbo.gov/publication/61882 |
| Contents |
| Table 1-4. Key Projections in CBO's Baseline |
| Supplemental Table 1. Summary Data for the Extended Baseline |
Table 1-4
| This file presents data from the tables in CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 and provides supplemental data. | ||||||
| www.cbo.gov/publication/61882 | ||||||
| Table 1-4. Key Projections in CBO's Baseline | ||||||
| Percentage of GDP | ||||||
| Annual average | ||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028-2031 | 2032-2036 | 2037-2046 | 2047-2056 | |
| Revenues | ||||||
| Individual income taxes | 8.6 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.9 |
| Payroll taxes | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Corporate income taxes | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Customs duties | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Other | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Total revenues | 17.5 | 17.7 | 17.6 | 17.7 | 18.1 | 18.6 |
| Outlays | ||||||
| Mandatory | ||||||
| Social Security | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Major health care programs | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| Other | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Subtotal | 14.2 | 14.4 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 16.1 |
| Discretionary | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Net interest | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 6.4 |
| Total outlays | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.4 | 24.1 | 25.3 | 27.1 |
| Deficit (-) | -5.8 | -5.7 | -5.8 | -6.4 | -7.2 | -8.5 |
| Debt held by the public at the end of the period | 101 | 102 | 110 | 120 | 144 | 175 |
| Addendum: | ||||||
| Social Security | ||||||
| Revenues | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Outlays | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Contribution to the deficit (-) | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.5 |
| Medicare | ||||||
| Revenues | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Outlays | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 6.6 |
| Offsetting receipts | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.4 |
| Contribution to the deficit (-) | -1.9 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.1 | -3.7 |
| GDP at the end of the period (trillions of dollars) | 31.9 | 33.3 | 38.8 | 46.7 | 67.5 | 95.7 |
| Back to Table of Contents |
Supplemental Table 1
| This file presents data from the tables in CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 and provides supplemental data. | |||||||||||||||
| www.cbo.gov/publication/61882 | |||||||||||||||
| Supplemental Table 1. Summary Data for the Extended Baseline | |||||||||||||||
| Percentage of GDP | |||||||||||||||
| Spending | |||||||||||||||
| Noninterest spending | Addendum: | ||||||||||||||
| Fiscal year | Revenues | Social Security | Medicarea,b | Medicaid, CHIP, and marketplace subsidiesc | Other mandatoryb | Discretionaryb | Total noninterest spendingb | Net interest | Total spendingb | Revenues minus total noninterest spendingb | Revenues minus total spendingb | Federal debt held by the public | Medicare offsetting receiptsd | GDP (billions of dollars) | |
| 2026 | 17.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 20.1 | 3.3 | 23.3 | -2.6 | -5.8 | 100.6 | -0.7 | 31,902 | |
| 2027 | 17.7 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 20.0 | 3.3 | 23.3 | -2.3 | -5.7 | 102.1 | -0.7 | 33,315 | |
| 2028 | 17.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 19.6 | 3.5 | 23.2 | -2.1 | -5.6 | 104.1 | -0.7 | 34,666 | |
| 2029 | 17.6 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 19.8 | 3.7 | 23.5 | -2.3 | -6.0 | 105.8 | -0.7 | 36,010 | |
| 2030 | 17.6 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 19.7 | 3.8 | 23.5 | -2.1 | -5.9 | 107.7 | -0.8 | 37,391 | |
| 2031 | 17.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 19.6 | 4.0 | 23.6 | -1.9 | -5.9 | 109.6 | -0.8 | 38,813 | |
| 2032 | 17.7 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 19.6 | 4.1 | 23.8 | -1.9 | -6.1 | 111.5 | -0.8 | 40,277 | |
| 2033 | 17.7 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 19.7 | 4.3 | 23.9 | -2.0 | -6.3 | 114.0 | -0.9 | 41,796 | |
| 2034 | 17.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 19.8 | 4.4 | 24.2 | -2.1 | -6.5 | 116.2 | -0.9 | 43,373 | |
| 2035 | 17.7 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 19.8 | 4.5 | 24.3 | -2.1 | -6.6 | 118.0 | -0.9 | 45,012 | |
| 2036 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 19.8 | 4.6 | 24.4 | -2.1 | -6.7 | 120.2 | -1.0 | 46,712 | |
| 2037 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 19.8 | 4.7 | 24.5 | -2.0 | -6.7 | 122.4 | -1.0 | 48,473 | |
| 2038 | 17.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 19.9 | 4.8 | 24.7 | -2.0 | -6.8 | 124.7 | -1.0 | 50,302 | |
| 2039 | 17.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 19.9 | 4.9 | 24.8 | -2.0 | -6.9 | 127.1 | -1.1 | 52,196 | |
| 2040 | 18.0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 19.9 | 5.0 | 24.9 | -2.0 | -6.9 | 129.4 | -1.1 | 54,167 | |
| 2041 | 18.1 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.0 | 5.1 | 25.1 | -1.9 | -7.0 | 131.7 | -1.1 | 56,216 | |
| 2042 | 18.1 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.1 | 5.2 | 25.3 | -2.0 | -7.2 | 134.2 | -1.1 | 58,325 | |
| 2043 | 18.2 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.2 | 5.3 | 25.5 | -2.0 | -7.3 | 136.6 | -1.2 | 60,509 | |
| 2044 | 18.2 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.2 | 5.4 | 25.7 | -2.0 | -7.5 | 139.2 | -1.2 | 62,767 | |
| 2045 | 18.3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.3 | 5.6 | 25.8 | -2.0 | -7.6 | 141.8 | -1.2 | 65,086 | |
| 2046 | 18.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.4 | 5.7 | 26.0 | -2.0 | -7.7 | 144.5 | -1.2 | 67,459 | |
| 2047 | 18.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.4 | 5.8 | 26.2 | -2.0 | -7.8 | 147.3 | -1.3 | 69,907 | |
| 2048 | 18.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 20.5 | 5.9 | 26.4 | -2.1 | -8.0 | 150.1 | -1.3 | 72,430 | |
| 2049 | 18.5 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 20.5 | 6.0 | 26.6 | -2.1 | -8.1 | 153.0 | -1.3 | 75,033 | |
| 2050 | 18.5 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 20.6 | 6.1 | 26.7 | -2.1 | -8.2 | 156.0 | -1.3 | 77,711 | |
| 2051 | 18.5 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 20.7 | 6.3 | 26.9 | -2.1 | -8.4 | 159.0 | -1.3 | 80,469 | |
| 2052 | 18.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 20.8 | 6.4 | 27.2 | -2.2 | -8.6 | 162.2 | -1.4 | 83,314 | |
| 2053 | 18.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 20.8 | 6.5 | 27.3 | -2.1 | -8.7 | 165.3 | -1.4 | 86,254 | |
| 2054 | 18.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 20.9 | 6.7 | 27.5 | -2.2 | -8.8 | 168.5 | -1.4 | 89,292 | |
| 2055 | 18.7 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 20.9 | 6.8 | 27.7 | -2.2 | -9.0 | 171.8 | -1.4 | 92,435 | |
| 2056 | 18.8 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 21.0 | 6.9 | 27.9 | -2.2 | -9.1 | 175.1 | -1.4 | 95,690 | |
| Data source: Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||||||||||
| The extended baseline projections, which generally reflect current law, follow CBO's 10-year baseline budget projections and then extend most of the concepts underlying those projections for the rest of the long-term projection period. | |||||||||||||||
| CHIP = Children's Health Insurance Program. | |||||||||||||||
| a. Outlays for Medicare represent net Medicare spending, which is gross spending for Medicare minus offsetting receipts (Medicare premiums, certain payments by states to Medicare, and amounts paid to providers and then recovered). | |||||||||||||||
| b. When October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend, certain payments that would ordinarily have been made on that day are instead made at the end of September and thus are shifted into the previous fiscal year. Outlays presented in this table for programs affected by such timing shifts have been adjusted to exclude the effects of those shifts. | |||||||||||||||
| c. "Marketplace subsidies" refers to spending to subsidize health insurance purchased through the marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act and related spending. | |||||||||||||||
| d. Medicare offsetting receipts, which reduce total outlays, consist of Medicare premiums, certain payments by states to Medicare, and amounts paid to providers and then recovered. | |||||||||||||||
| Back to Table of Contents |
CBO - Congressional Budget Office published this content on February 10, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on February 11, 2026 at 18:11 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]