Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase, Gas Price Growth Expectations Fall

NEW YORK-The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today released the June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households' inflation expectations increased at the short- and medium-term horizons and were unchanged at the longer-term horizon. Gas price growth expectations declined to the lowest level since August 2022. Labor market expectations improved, with job-finding expectations increasing and job-loss expectations and expectations about the unemployment rate declining. Spending growth expectations were unchanged. Respondents were more optimistic about their future household financial situations, while expectations about future credit availability deteriorated slightly. The survey was fielded from June 1 through June 30, 2026.

The main findings from the June 2026Survey are:

Inflation

• Median inflation expectations at the one-year-ahead horizon increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7% in June, the highest level since September 2023. They also increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.3% at the three-year horizon, the highest level since June 2022. Median expectations at the five-year horizon were unchanged at 3.0%. The survey's measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) remained unchanged at the one-year horizon, increased slightly at the three-year horizon, and decreased at the five-year horizon.
• Median inflation uncertainty-or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes-decreased at all horizons.
• Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.2%, remaining above the 12-month trailing average of 3.1%.
• Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 9.4%, and by 0.9 percentage point for rent to 8.3%. Median year-ahead price change expectations decreased by 0.8 percentage point for food to 5.0%, by 2.3 percentage points for the cost of college education to 5.7%, and by 3.5 percentage points for gas to 1.5%. The June reading for gas is the lowest since August 2022.

Labor Market

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8% in June. This is the highest reading since March 2025.
• Mean unemployment expectations-or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now-decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7%, remaining above the 12-month trailing average of 41.3%.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 14.1%, falling below the 12-month trailing average of 14.5%. The mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months (or the expected quit rate), declined by 3.5 percentage points to 17.3%, falling below the 12-month trailing average of 18.6%.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one's current job was lost increased by 1.2 percentage points to 44.9%, though it remains below the 12-month trailing average of 46.3%. The increase was driven by respondents with household incomes under $50,000.

Household Finance

• The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% in June. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.8% and 3.0% since June 2025.
• Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations remained unchanged at 5.0%.
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit decreasing. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated slightly, with a larger share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit and a smaller share expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 10.8%, the lowest reading since April 2023. The decline was broad-based across age and education groups.
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level remained unchanged at 3.1%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 9.5%, remaining above the 12-month trailing average of 8.7%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 2.0 percentage points to 26.6%.
• Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households' financial situation also improved, with a smaller share of households expecting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 2.9 percentage points to 40.9%, the highest level of the series since April 2021.

About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)

The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans' views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers' outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.

The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.