Butter Fingers at Morgan Stanley

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Good Morning,

Yields soared two a two-decade high after rising inflation and rates came back to the forefront. Stock indexes are nonetheless trading at all-time highs. Looks like Doomio and Burry will have to wait a little while longer.

Also, somebody is totally getting fired at Morgan Stanley LMAO

Chronograph is changing the game when it comes to portfolio analytics for private markets. Whether you're a GP in private equity, an LP at a pension fund, or anything in between, you should check out their Private Capital AI Playbook and see how investors are using AI to save time and uncover deeper insights.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

• US stocks tumbled yesterday as rising inflation put soaring yields back in focus

  • Nvidia is among the most traded CDS as hedging demand soars

• Chinese AI stocks fell after China opened investigations into DeepSeek and Moonshot on data security

• US yields soared the most since 'Liberation Day' in April 2025

  • 10Y yield hit its highest since 2007

  • 2Y hit its highest level May 2024

  • The biggest long-bond ETF hits a record low

• Dollar jumped to an eight-week high on further Fed rate hike bets

• Oil tanker costs hit record $1.2M/day

Earnings

• General Mills beat Q1 earnings estimates but maintained its cautious FY outlook as higher input costs squeeze margins (QZ)

• Cracker Barrel smashed Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on continued improvements in underlying traffic trends and guest metrics as its new CEO keeps its strategy intact (WSJ)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: Costco, Darden Restaurants

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• What is going on in Texas? This is wild lol

• Get a $50 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• Morgan Stanley banker accidentally leaked 100+ deal pipeline (BBG)

• US business activity is at a five-year high with inflation pressures rising (RT)

• US is open to extending China trade truce or a bigger deal (RT)

• Canada is open to US trade Deal but won't give up deeper EU ties (WSJ)

• CFOs lift inflation outlook citing rates as concern (RT)

• Analysts snap longest run of earnings upgrades in five years (BBG)

• Single-client hedge funds attract growing share of capital (RT)

• Private credit buzzes to getting in on JPMorgan's card empire (WSJ)

• Blackstone preps CLO that mixes syndicated loans with private credit (BBG)

• Apollo capped private credit fund redemptions for a third quarter (BBG)

• Space investment more than doubled to $23B through June YTD (RT)

• Turkey's nationwide funds liquidation has affected 500k investors (RT)

• Scott Bessent could take on AI czar role (RT)

• OpenAI hacked an Australian government website (BBG)

• Altman and Amodei call for global cooperation on AI safety (BBG)

• SIG's 80-person prediction team launches student contest (BBG)

• L&G will cut 10% of jobs (FT)

• Eight Sleep is nearing $1B in 'Pod' sales (BBG)

• US 30Y mortgage rate hit a two-year high at 7% (RT)

• FDA plans major move to speed authorizations of vapes (WSJ)

A Message from Chronograph

What are private capital investors actually building with AI?

At Chronograph's 2026 user conference, 225 leading investors from 93 firms gathered to compare notes on how they're connecting trusted portfolio data to the AI tools they already use.

Three use cases worth a closer look:

• Custom LP Reporting: IR professionals described turning a week of spreadsheet work building bespoke LP reporting into an afternoon using Chronograph's Claude Connector.

• Cash Flow Forecasting: LPs are modeling commitment pacing against allocation targets within interactive dashboards pulling live Chronograph data.

• Winning More Deals: Investment teams are querying every precedent on multiples, growth, and value creation in seconds when evaluating new deals, showing management teams their track record in comparable companies.

Explore how your peers leverage Chronograph's AI solution suite here:

Download the Private Capital AI Playbook

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Goldman Sachs emerged as the lead bidder to acquire Palmer Square, a $37B AUM credit firm run by a husband-wife duo

• Canadian engineering consulting firm WSP Global ended talks for Dutch peer Arcadis after it twice rejected its takeover bids offering a $6.3B valuation, including debt

• Australia blocked Insurance Australia Group's planned $960M takeover of RAC Insurance on competition concerns

• Royal Caribbean agreed to acquire a 50% stake in all-inclusive retreat company Sandals Resorts International at a $6B valuation

• $715M-listed UK investment firm Pollen Street is ‌exploring going private

• Activist Jana Partners is urging $1.3B-listed theme park operator Six Flags to explore a sale

• Ember Infrastructure Management offered to acquire UK subsea technology firm Ashtead Technology for $660M cash at a 13% premium

• $500M-listed Canadian movie theater chain Cineplex may explore a sale

• Spanish green steel startup Hydnum Steel is in talks for a 50% stake sale at a $350M valuation to help fund a government-backed project

• Indian solar firm Waaree Energies will merge group-firm ​Indosolar with the company ‌in a $100M deal

• The Arnault family ​will merge its holding company Agache with ⁠Christian Dior, which will directly hold 49.8% of LVMH ‌and ⁠66% of voting rights, to simplify LVMH's shareholding structure

VC

• Data-security company Cyera raised a $400M Series G extension from Goldman Sachs Alternatives

• Tekever, a Portuguese provider of AI-powered autonomous systems, raised a $580M Series D at a $6.4B valuation led by UC Investments and Baillie Gifford

• Fever, a global technology platform for culture and live entertainment, raised $250M in primary equity financing led by EQT

• Hubble Network, a satellite startup building a Bluetooth-connected low-Earth-orbit constellation, raised a $200M Series C at a $1.6B valuation led by Smith Point Capital

• Basecamp Research, a frontier AI company developing AI-designed medicines, raised a $140M Series C led by S32

• micro1, the AI data training startup competing with Mercor and Scale, raised a $100M Series B at a $4B valuation

• Numeral, an AI-powered sales tax compliance platform, raised a $100M Series C led by Insight Partners

• Ultraviolette Automotive, an EV platform and battery technology company, raised an $85M funding round led by Yali Capital and TDK Ventures

• Ema, a startup using teams of AI agents to automate corporate processes, raised a $77M Series B led by Creaegis

• Moir, an identity-verification startup targeting synthetic media detection, raised a $50M seed round at a $250M valuation led by a16z and Sequoia

• Pilgrim, a startup developing hardware to detect viruses in the air, raised a $25M seed round at a $150M valuation led by Buckley Ventures

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• $130B-listed Novo Nordisk is open to direct listing in US

• Airtel Africa, the African telecoms unit of Indian conglomerateBharti Enterprises, filed for a smaller $800M London IPO of its mobile money business Airtel Money targeting an $8B-$9B valuationin what could be UK's biggest listing since 2021

• Triton Partners is exploring an IPO or sale of power transmission component maker Trench Group at a ten-figure valuation

• Chinese chip foundry CanSemi Technology is seeking to raise $920M in a China IPO

• Korean AI startup Wrtn Technologies picked Mirae Asset to lead its Korea IPO; the firm was valued at $890M in its Series C last month

• SoftBank-backed used-car marketplace Carro is considering a dual $400M-$500M US-Singapore IPO

• Finnish counter-drone company Sensofusion plans to raise $344M at a $1.5B pre-money equity value in a Finland IPO

• Kenya's leading supermarket chain Quickmart is planning a Kenya IPO

SPAC / SPV

• Real estate services platform WT Realty Group agreed to merge with FortuneX Acquisition Corp. at a $600M equity value

Debt

• Aussie data center company Firmus Technologies is in talks for a $10B financing deal to buy Nvidia chips ahead of its $5B Australia IPO

• US will purchase $6B of long-dated Treasury bonds

• Residential land REIT Millrose Properties plans to raise $1.5B in debt to fund homesite acquisitions

• Peloton is looking to raise $800M in a debut junk bond sale

• New York raised $320M in a debut ESG bond sale

• Two units of Indian conglomerate JSW Group plan to raise a combined $300M in local debt

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Senior creditors including Elliott, Silver Point, and Farallon Capital are preparing to write off more debt and inject another $1.3B into struggling UK utility Thames Water to avoid UK taking temporary control

• Lone Star Funds is considering handing control of struggling Italian coffee machine maker Evoca to creditors including Carlyle and Park Square

Funds / Secondaries

• Trump Jr's Investment firm 1789 Capital raised $2B for a targeted $3B second growth fund

• $2B AUM tech-focused hedge fund SoMa Equity Partners will wind down

• Korea's SWF KIC is exploring a $1B PE LP stakes sale

• Lower MM PE FOF Twin Bridge Capital Partners is seeking to raise $600M for a debut PE secondaries fund

• Crypto private credit firm Thoro Capital Management launched a $300M fund anchored by crypto VC Hashed

• AI bull Dan Ives is seeking to raise $200M in an IPO of Ives Ultra AI Opportunities, a closed-end fund to bet on private late-stage AI startups

• VC firm Ibex Investors raised $87M for an Israel-focused secondaries fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Coinbase was dropped as member of UK Finance lobby group

• NYSE and Blockchain.com will explore selling tokenized stocks

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• ICYMI: F2 was built by former bankers, investors, and AI experts. Every engagement includes Forward Deployed Engineers who have structured deals and sat on ICs. Credit-native AI trusted by firms managing $400B. Try a demo.

• a16z resurfaced an interview of Sam Altman from eight years ago, where he describes his time after selling his first startup. The most productive years of his life was when he was virtually unemployed. Incredibly underrated perspective…

• FT published an insightful analysis on how PE ended up in limbo.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.