CFA’s State of the Economy 2026

CFA's State of the Economy examines the real financial conditions facing American households at this critical moment. While the Trump Administration has described its economic agenda as the "dawn of a new Golden Age of American greatness," the data tell a far more complicated and concerning story. As expert policy advocates, CFA closely monitors economic conditions, regulatory decisions, and their direct impact on consumers. The evidence shows the U.S. economy is in a precarious position, with rising risks and mounting pressure on working families. Ahead of the President's State of the Union Address, it is essential to present the economic facts clearly and transparently.

FACT: Food prices rose 3.1% in 2025, with an average family of four spending more than $1,000 a month on groceries, up 30% from January of 2020.

"The Administration and its allies urge Americans to 'eat real food,' but real food is expensive," said Thomas Gremillion, Director of Food Policy. "That's why most of what's on the shelves at major grocers like Walmart, Target, and even Whole Foods, is ultra-processed. In addition to lowering food prices by abandoning unlawful, irrational tariffs, the Administration should take up reforms with a proven track record of reducing harms from ultra-processed foods, and of making "real food" more accessible and affordable -reforms like front-of-pack labeling, investing in school meals, shielding children from food marketing, and fostering competition."

FACT: 75% of homes, for the typical household earning the median income in their area, are now unaffordable.

"The American Dream of homeownership is further out of reach in 2026 than almost any time before, said Sharon Cornelissen, Director of Housing. "This Administration has floated gimmicky proposals, from the 50-year mortgage to selling off Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the highest bidder. But to truly tackle housing unaffordability and build an economy that works for all, we need ambitious investments in affordable housing construction for both renters and homebuyers, as well as targeted down payment assistance."

FACT: Energy prices increased more than 13% from 2022 to 2025 and are expected to outpace inflation for 2026. The average American consumer is seeing increases between 13 to 18% for residential electricity relative to 2022 prices.

"The Administration has made terrible energy decisions that will continue to increase the cost of energy for the average American and make us less competitive against foreign adversaries, but it's not too late to make course corrections," said Karim D. Marshall, Director of Climate and Energy Policy. "Dozens of projects are either near completion or built and ready to be connected to the grid across the country. Low-emission wind and solar facilities will allow home-grown energy to relieve the pressure on our aging infrastructure and lower prices, thereby making a real difference in the budgets of American families. The Administration would be wise to cease its attacks on ongoing projects and allow completed projects to power American growth."

FACT: Auto insurance premiums rose by 55%, between February 2020 to October 2025, far above the rate of inflation, leaving millions of drivers struggling to pay their premiums or driving uninsured because coverage is unaffordable.

"Complying with government mandates to purchase auto insurance is getting more and more difficult, and lower-income Americans are stuck with the untenable choice between driving uninsured and illegally or not driving at all," said Douglas Heller, Director of Insurance. "Rather than continue to fulfill its mandate to monitor "access to affordable non-health insurance products," this Administration has instead focused on covering up its research related to insurance affordability by removing the active link to its 2025 Report on Personal Auto Insurance Markets and Technological Change from the Federal Insurance Office website. Americans deserve stronger oversight of the insurance industry across the country and regulators must do a better job of ensuring that this critical financial product is affordable for the hundreds of millions of Americans who need coverage."

FACT: Over the last year, private credit default rates have nearly doubled in some sectors and crypto markets have fallen by more than $2 trillion in value since October.

"You can't run the world's largest economy like a get-rich-quick scheme," said Corey Frayer, Director of Investor Protection. "The President is encouraging markets to double down on risk so he can brag about short term returns, threatening retirement investors. Americans need well-regulated markets so the system doesn't collapse if the AI sector is overexposed to private credit or if the traditional banking system is overexposed to crypto."

FACT: Since its launch in 2011, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has returned $19 billion to people who were ripped off by financial companies. But under the leadership of Acting Director Russell Vought, the CFPB has permanently dismissed 22 enforcement actions, and in doing so, it has taken $3.5 billion in restitution away from consumers.

"During the Great Recession, millions of Americans lost their homes, their jobs, and their life savings," said Adam Rust, Director of Financial Services. "But because of its rules designed to stop deceptive business practices, curb predatory lending, and put the brakes on rip-off junk fees, the CFPB restored fairness to markets and lowered the cost of living for struggling households. Then, under the new Administration, CFPB rules designed to save Americans $15 billion in overdraft charges and late fees were canceled, and billions more in relief due to harmed consumers were withdrawn. Mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level in a decade, and the share of student loans now considered seriously delinquent has increased 23-fold since the end of 2024. Consumers need an advocate in their corner, but the CFPB has left the ring."

FACT: Online scam losses reported to the FBI have increase 33%.

"Americans are losing more and more to devastating online scams each year, said Ben Winters, Director of AI and Privacy. "While there's no silver bullet, people need strong accountability for the AI companies pouring fuel on the fire, strict restrictions on data brokers who sell lists to target vulnerable communities, and strong enforcement for social media platforms that enable the distribution of scams. At a time where more resources are needed at the FTC and CFPB, the administration is firing key personnel, giving corporate pardons to key bad actors, and making moves to prioritize Big Tech over people."

FACT: This Administration has spent the past year attacking the independence of the very agency Congress put in place to keep dangerous products out of our homes. While the President speaks about a thriving economy and cutting red tape, he never once mentions the families who will pay the price when dangerous products reach their children because our independent safety watchdog has been left unable to do its job.

"We need to put safety over politics and allow the Consumer Product Safety Commission to do its job," said Courtney E. Griffin, Director of Consumer Product Safety. "The American people deserve a fully staffed, fully independent CPSC, free from political meddling, with a protected budget and a seat at the table with international partners working to keep dangerous products out of our homes and away from our kids. Dismantling the CPSC and gutting its leadership is not an economic agenda; it's a transfer of risk from corporations to unsuspecting families."

"Household finances remain under pressure for many Americans, with rising costs continuing to challenge affordability and strain monthly budgets, said Amy Miller, Director of America Saves. "While people want to prepare for emergencies and future goals, too many lack the financial breathing room to save consistently. This moment calls for practical, accessible solutions that strengthen affordability and help households build financial confidence and long-term stability."