Time to rethink modal shift: Zero-emission trucks change the game

EU Transport policies must evolve in line with market and technology realities.

Europe's freight transport landscape is changing faster than ever. For decades, EU transport policy has centred on the premise of modal shift away from road and towards rail and inland waterways, driven largely by the assumption that non-road modes have superior environmental performance. But with the rapid deployment of zero-emission trucks and the profound technological transformation underway in logistics, that rationale can no longer be maintained.

A new independent study by Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML), commissioned by ACEA, provides the first comprehensive reassessment of modal shift policies in a decarbonising freight sector. The analysis shows that battery-electric and hydrogen-powered trucks will dramatically reduce the external costs of road freight, narrowing or even closing the environmental gap with other transport modes, notably rail, on many routes. At the same time, the competitiveness of non-road modes continues to be influenced by structural factors such as rail capacity availability, cross-border coordination, and terminal capacity.

The study concludes that modal shift policies should not be seen as an end in itself. Instead, the EU should adopt a mode-neutral, data driven policy approach focused on internalising external costs fairly across all modes, improving network efficiency, and targeting investments where it delivers the highest societal value. Road and rail are both essential, but EU transport policies should evolve in line with current market and technological realities, rather than assumptions rooted in earlier contexts.

Against this backdrop, the TML study should help inform the debate on Europe's freight transport strategy and support a more balanced, evidence-based approach to achieving climate and competitiveness goals.

You can consult the full study here.