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06/02/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 06/02/2026 09:18

What Desert Locusts Reveal About Disaster Monitoring

Published Date

June 02, 2026

Article Content

Key Takeaways

  • Every $1 spent on locust monitoring and control generates an estimated $160-$680 in benefits.
  • Children exposed to swarms before birth and in infancy experience significant stunting, which can have lifetime consequences.

A new working paper co-authored by Gordon McCord of the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy suggests that the greatest benefits of disaster monitoring may come from catastrophes the world never sees.

The study examined one of the longest-running disaster monitoring systems in existence: surveillance for the desert locust, among the most destructive agricultural pests on Earth. Using three decades of data, the researchers found that interruptions in monitoring - including during armed conflicts such as the Yemeni civil war - can contribute to larger swarm outbreaks, worsening food insecurity and long-term health impacts across vulnerable regions.

Gordon McCord, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Children exposed to locust swarms in utero were 18% more likely to experience stunted growth - a condition associated with malnutrition and long-term developmental harms - while children exposed during the first nine months after birth were 21% more likely, the study found.

The researchers estimate that for every $1 spent annually on maintaining the locust monitoring and control system, it generates between $160 and $680 in benefits - even when considering only childhood nutrition impacts. Without monitoring, they estimate that the long-term economic impacts of increased childhood stunting would reduce GDP across affected countries by roughly $25 billion per year.

"In a world increasingly vulnerable to large-scale shocks - from infectious disease to crop pests to climate disasters - early warning systems may be one of the highest-return public investments we can make," McCord said. "The biggest successes in disaster prevention are often invisible because the disaster never happens. But our findings show that even relatively modest investments in monitoring and prevention can avert enormous human and economic costs."

While the study focuses on desert locust outbreaks across Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, the researchers say the findings carry broader lessons for disaster preparedness efforts worldwide - including climate- and agriculture-related risks increasingly facing California and other regions.

The study was conducted by an international team of researchers in the United States, Canada and Europe.

Additional details: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper and research highlights compiled by the University of Chicago.

Video loop of desert locusts featured at the top of this story is courtesy of Audiovisual Library, Department of Global Communications, United Nations. Static image / teaser of swarm and truck in crop field credit: Magnus Ullman, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

"Our findings show that even relatively modest investments in monitoring and prevention can avert enormous human and economic costs." - Gordon McCord
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