Scenarios That Could Define 2035

The goal of scenario planning is to understand more about the future, not to predict it. Identifying key drivers of change, as well as understanding their second- and third-order effects and the interrelationships between them, does more than help to prepare for contingencies-it also helps to look for warning indicators and triggers of profound change, and it can drive action to prevent scenarios from coming about in the first place.

The CSIS Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy drafted several scenarios to help think through aspects of the world in 2035. It then turned to trusted experts, inside and outside of CSIS, for their comments, insights, and concerns. The experts' contributions overlay the scenarios themselves, highlighting further areas of emphasis, implications, or alternative outcomes.