Vast Federal Lands Have Potential for Renewable Energy—But Only a Small Fraction Is Needed

Vast Federal Lands Have Potential for Renewable Energy-But Only a Small Fraction Is Needed

NREL Analysis Finds Millions of Acres Have Opportunity for Solar, Wind, and Geothermal, While Leaving Most Areas Undisturbed or Available for Other Land Uses

Federal lands are used for many different purposes including recreation, conservation, livestock grazing, and energy development. Traditionally, energy development on these lands has focused on fossil production. About 12% of oil drilling in the contiguous United States is on federal lands, and the share of total natural gas production on federal lands is similar. In contrast, only 4% of operating utility-scale land-based renewable energy capacity-solar photovoltaic (PV), land-based wind, and geothermal-is currently located on federal lands.

But now, with growing interest in more renewable energy development, it is a good time to revisit the potential for this development on federal lands.

In a new study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) quantified how much solar PV, wind, and geothermal energy could be developed on federal lands in the contiguous United States. NREL finds there is great potential for these technologies going forward, while still leaving substantial area for other uses.

"We learned that there is huge potential for renewable energy technologies on federal lands," said Trieu Mai, principal investigator and senior energy systems researcher at NREL. "The potential is far more than what will be needed to meet our future energy demands, creating opportunities for development that have low conflict with other uses."

How Much Renewable Energy Might Be Developed on Federal Lands?

To understand future renewable energy deployment opportunities on federal lands, NREL created seven scenarios with a wide range of possibilities. All seven scenarios achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 and assume high electrification through 2050. NREL did this to understand the total maximum renewable energy development that could occur.

For each scenario, NREL used a power sector model to determine what energy technologies to build and where across the country to meet future energy demand. Those results were then downscaled to produce deployment estimates on federal lands.

In the central three scenarios, NREL estimates 51-84 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV, wind, and geothermal capacity are deployed by 2035 on federal lands. The total federal land area that is used for the three technologies ranges from 325,000 to 2 million acres. That is less than 0.5% of all federal land area, and a large fraction of the land could also have other uses.

In the highest deployment scenario where siting on nonfederal is more constrained, renewable energy deployment on federal lands increases to 231-270 GW by 2035.

How Much Renewable Resource Is Available for Development?

NREL used a geospatial tool to model the technical potential-or maximum amount of available resource after considering siting constraints-for the three renewable technologies on federal lands. Technical potential can be measured in terms of land area or generation capacity.

NREL modeled the technical potential on land administered by five agencies: the Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Department of Energy. To ensure realistic siting in the model, NREL worked closely with these agencies throughout the study, including incorporating detailed geospatial data from BLM's Western Solar Plan.

"Each agency has its own mission priorities, which has implications for how its land is managed," said Anthony Lopez, a senior researcher at NREL. "We determined the technical potential by limiting renewable energy development based on other land uses, such as recreation, historic preservation, conservation, and critical habitat. Even when factoring in the other uses, we found a lot of remaining land area would be suitable for renewable energy development."

NREL estimates 5,750 GW of utility-scale PV could be generated on 44 million acres of federal land across the United States. Wind development has a potential capacity of 875 GW on 43 million acres. Hydrothermal systems could produce 130 GW on 12 million acres, and enhanced geothermal systems could produce 975 GW on 27 million acres. While these estimates represent the vast potential for renewable energy on federal lands, only a small percentage of the potential would be needed to meet future energy demands.

While NREL strives to ensure realistic siting in the modeling, there are still uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties, NREL developed a scenario to explore the implications of much more limited siting opportunities. In this scenario, potential wind capacity declines by 96% and solar capacity declines by 70%.

Where Do We Go from Here?

Because federal lands serve many public needs, any decision about their use involves trade-offs. Land administrators must balance various priorities, and they may have limited experience with renewable energy development. "Collaboration is crucial to support these agencies in navigating competing interests while integrating renewable energy development responsibly," said Melinda Marquis, energy systems researcher at NREL.

This is the first study that examines renewable energy development on federal lands for the entire contiguous United States-encompassing all federal lands and multiple renewable energy technologies-using a harmonized and high-resolution approach. Future analysis can assess the viability of specific areas or sites and should be updated as land administrators' priorities evolve.

"Through this research, we established productive dialogue with our five partner agencies," Marquis said. "We now have a technical framework for ongoing collaboration that will guide responsible energy development in the future."

Learn more about the Renewable Energy Potential on Federal Lands Study and NREL's energy analysis research.