Based on New Information, NMFS Expects Reduction in Serious Injury and Mortality to Right Whales by US Fixed Gear Fisheries

Good news for Maine's fixed gear fisheries!

As some of you have already seen, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has announced that, based on a preliminary review of the latest data on entanglements, updated population estimates, and increased monitoring of right whales, it expects the estimated mortality and serious injuries attributable to U.S. fixed gear fisheries to be much lower than in 2022.

This initial review of updated data has the potential to bring mortality and serious injuries closer to Potential Biological Removal (PBR) than previously estimated. PBR is the scientific estimate used in marine mammal stock assessments to determine the maximum number of human-caused deaths or serious injuries a marine mammal population can sustain annually and still reach its optimum population.

This announcement is positive news for Maine's fixed gear fisheries, including lobster, and represents the commitment by NMFS to a scientifically sound approach to assess risk posed by fixed gear fisheries that does not rely on "worst case" scenarios.

The new data and analysis must still be peer-reviewed, and the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team (TRT) will be postponing its December 2026 in-person meeting so that work can occur. A virtual information session will be held December 2, 2026 to provide updates on the status of these analyses.

NMFS's email states that the TRT will convene as planned in March 2027, with a second meeting (if needed) in summer 2027, with the goal of publishing a final rule by the end of 2028 in accordance with the Consolidated Appropriations Act.

NOAA has not yet released updated data layers in the Decision Support Tool, which could further inform what the road ahead looks like for our fisheries. That said, NMFS has indicated in recent TRT webinars that co-occurrence between gear density and whale presence off the coast of Maine is likely to be substantially lower than it was in 2022. This, along with evidence of an increasing right whale population and the risk reduction measures already implemented by the fishery, results in a much-improved picture looking forward.

I will continue to provide updates as we learn more about this evolving process.

Carl Wilson
Commissioner
Maine Department of Marine Resources