Agricultural economics conference at Montana State focused on cattle prices, global trade

BOZEMAN - Scores of Montana agricultural producers and representatives from industry trade groups gained insight into critical economic trends at the 2025 Agricultural Economics Conference, held in Bozeman on Nov. 7.

The conference is part of MSU's annual Celebrate Ag week, which brings together producers and supporters of agriculture across Montana for networking, educational and celebratory events, including a panel featuring young farmers and ranchers and a recognition of this year's Outstanding Agricultural Leader awardee, Gordon Stoner.

The conference provides agricultural producers with important updates about the economic landscape of Montana agriculture and how it is shaped by global markets and trends. At the same time, the event affords MSU professors and Extension specialists a chance to inform people about their latest research. The event is free for MSU students to attend each fall.

"Events like this are one of many ways land-grant universities build connections between off-campus stakeholders and the MSU community," said Joel Schumacher, conference organizer and Extension specialist with MSU's Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics. "Every year, this event provides opportunities for information sharing and relationship building."

The keynote lecture, named for M.L. Wilson, the state's first agricultural Extension agent and namesake of MSU's Wilson Hall, focused on the long-term outlook for the U.S. cattle industry. The lecture was delivered by Courtney Cowley, assistant vice president and Oklahoma City Branch Executive for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

As a financial expert, Cowley outlined indications that cattle markets are faring better than crop markets right now. Those indications include loan repayment rates and higher cash rents for ranchland. It's a good time to be a cow-calf producer, Cowley said, with cattle prices soaring to historic highs not seen since the 1950s after adjusting for inflation.

Cowley discussed a conundrum facing many Montana ranchers right now: the relationship between high cattle prices and challenges with rebuilding herd sizes, with cattle inventories at historic lows. It is often more attractive for a producer to sell their cows when prices are high instead of keeping them to grow the herd, she said, leaving ranchers with a difficult choice.

Schumacher's presentation on the Montana agriculture year in review and outlook complemented Cowley's lecture. He noted strong calf prices and improved drought conditions compared to 2024 and discussed the difficult year for Montana wheat and barley growers resulting, in part, from changing global trade dynamics.

However, Andrew Swanson, assistant professor of agricultural economics, provided some hope for crop farmers with his presentation on the growing biofuels industry and its positive impact on agricultural markets. Biofuels are derived from oilseed crops including soybeans and canola, providing a cleaner alternative to petroleum diesel that can be used to power cars and airplanes. Increased demand for biofuels in the aviation industry, coupled with policy such as fuel standards and subsidies, has created new markets for farmers throughout the U.S., Swanson's research found. Still, there are limitations to its growth as the country currently lacks significant infrastructure to process biofuels domestically.

Additional lectures touched on contemporary challenges for agriculture in Montana and globally. Nick Hagerty, another agricultural economics assistant professor, discussed his research on opportunities for the state's irrigated agriculture and improving irrigation and canal efficiency. Department Head Eric Belasco presented on how risk management strategies in agriculture have adapted to volatile trade conditions in the face of tariffs and changing export and import markets.

Still other presentations featured updates from the Montana departments of agriculture and livestock and research by MSU agricultural economics faculty Kelsey Larson, Greg Gilpin and Justin Gallagher, with topics ranging from conservation easements to property tax legislation to the impact of urban growth on farmland.

Key conference sponsors aside from MSU and MSU Extension included Ag West Farm Credit, Montana Farm Bureau Federation, Montana Farmers Union, Montana Grain Growers Association and Montana Stockgrowers Association. For more information about Celebrate Ag events, visit ag.montana.edu/celebrateag/.