Think energy is expensive now? Wait until 2029

Bradford Era. Op-Ed Daniel Weaver/PIOGA. 2.13.26

The energy statistics in the United States have not changed: Pennsylvania remains the second-largest producer of natural gas in the country. If the Appalachia Basin region (Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia) was its own country, it would be the fourth largest producer in the world.

From century-old "conventional" wells to far-larger Marcellus and Utica "unconventional" shale wells, these resources have supported grid reliability, driven industrial competitiveness and supplied relatively affordable and reliable energy to millions of Pennsylvanians.

How crazy is it to think, then, that by 2029 tens of thousands of families and businesses in the commonwealth could be left in the cold without reliable and affordable energy and heat?

The current direction of the commonwealth's energy policy, particularly the Department of Environmental Protection's planned implementation of a federal methane reduction rule known as Subpart OOOOc, will turn that nightmare into reality.

Subpart OOOOc, adopted by the Biden-era U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, is scheduled to be enforced through Pennsylvania's "State Implementation Plan" under the Clean Air Act beginning in 2029. The rule imposes sweeping new monitoring, reporting and equipment mandates across only the oil and gas sector to reduce methane emissions, but it does so by treating low-production conventional wells in largely the same way as high-volume shale facilities, despite vast differences in production levels, emissions profiles, operating margins and infrastructure.

Pennsylvania has roughly 100,000 conventional wells, many producing only a few barrels of oil or natural gas equivalent per day. Individually, these wells are small in total volume of energy produced. Taken collectively, however, they play a vital role in energy system reliability, particularly in rural areas, by feeding gathering systems largely cut off from interstate pipelines and providing a steady supply of energy during periods of peak demand that helps stabilize prices for consumers.

These wells also account for a very small share of national greenhouse gas emissions - less than 1% by most estimates. Nevertheless, under the Subpart OOOOc requirements, conventional operators will face new regulatory burdens that are completely unaligned with emissions values, production levels and economic reality.

EPA's own assessment states that monitoring and compliance obligations under Subpart OOOOc can cost thousands of dollars per site annually, regardless of output. The math becomes as plain as day: operators of small, conventional wells will be forced to comply at a loss or shut in production. The predictable result is tens of thousands of accelerated well closures, weakening Pennsylvania's energy infrastructure and driving up energy costs for families, manufacturers and small businesses.

This is where the Shapiro administration's energy policy deserves stronger criticism, notwithstanding its rhetorical support for an "all-of-the-above" energy portfolio to keep energy flowing and affordable.

Pennsylvania's oil and natural gas sector has already delivered substantial emissions reductions. The displacement of coal by natural gas for electricity production remains the single largest driver of the steep drop in U.S. greenhouse gas over the past 20 years. That progress was achieved through pragmatic and coordinated federal and state energy policies that paired strong standards with economic viability and lower energy costs. Yet, rather than building on this existing framework, Subpart OOOOc generally assumes regulatory failure and overlays a one-size-fits-all federal mandate that ignores Pennsylvania's regulatory history, energy mix and affordability impacts.

Importantly, the federal rule includes provisions allowing states to tailor regulatory requirements for economically disadvantaged facilities. States are permitted to conduct economic analyses to permit facilities to use already existing and effective methane monitoring and capture techniques, rather than the highly expensive and overkill mandates of Subpart OOOOc.

However, the Shaprio administration has so far refused to use the authority it has to right-size Subpart OOOOc into more effective and manageable requirements for Pennsylvania's industry and its citizens. Without question, this refusal will lead to environmental and economic hardships well beyond reducing a fraction of a percent of nationwide methane emissions, as tens of thousands of wells will be abandoned and large regions of the state will be left without reliable and affordable heat.

This is an argument for smarter energy policy, not skirting reasonable regulations or accountability. Pennsylvania has balanced energy production and environmental protection before. Treating oil and natural gas as liabilities rather than assets risks higher costs and greater price volatility.

Without action by the governor and DEP to soften Subpart OOOOc's impact, energy will become less reliable and less affordable for Pennsylvanians.

(Daniel J. Weaver is president and executive director of the Pennsylvania Independent Oil & Gas Association.)

Link to full article: Think energy is expensive now? Wait until 2029 - The Bradford Era

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