Hurricanes, Fires, and Other Climate-Driven Disturbances Cost Forest Owners Billions

Date

July 8, 2026

News Type

Press Release

What's the story?

Insects, disease, wildfires, and storms can weaken or kill trees in the eastern United States. Although some disturbances are natural, climate change is contributing to the growth and intensity of these events, which can have serious repercussions for the timber industry.

Disturbances cost forest owners approximately $49.5 billion per year between 2014 and 2024, according to new analysis from Resources for the Future (RFF). About 40 percent of disturbance-related losses that decade-about $20 billion per year-exceed losses predicted by disturbance rates between 2005 and 2015, indicating that climate change may be to blame for a large portion of the recent losses.

The authors show that disturbances and forest mortality increased between the two analyzed time periods and in all eastern ecoregions. Hurricanes in the Southeast and insect outbreaks in the Northeast were major drivers of the higher disturbance rates between 2014 and 2024.

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What changed, and where?

The annual rate of disturbance events varied by ecoregion, but in all ecoregions analyzed, disturbance rates-and monetary losses for forest owners-were higher between 2014 and 2024 than between 2005 and 2015.

By far the greatest unanticipated monetary losses occurred on the Outer Coastal Plain, which includes parts of South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and the Gulf Coast. The Outer Coastal Plain accounted for 54 percent of total monetary losses between 2014 and 2024, with about 39 percent unanticipated by loss rates in the previous decade.

The Midwest Broadleaf ecoregion-which encompasses parts of Virginia, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia-had the highest rate of unanticipated, disturbance-related losses in the latter decade: 91 percent, or about $3.2 billion.

What are the economic losses?

Between 2014 and 2024, total disturbance-related losses cost forest owners $49.5 billion per year, or about two percent of a stand's annual value. This total cost estimate is much higher than it was between 2005 and 2015, when disturbances cost eastern forest owners $30.8 billion per year.

The analysis estimates that about three percent of forests are exposed to disturbances per year, with about 1.1 percent of trees dying as a result. Between 2014 and 2024, about a quarter of a percent more trees died than expected due to disturbance events.

The analysis also found that forest disturbance area is a poor indicator of expected mortality and the value of lost trees. Because tree death affects stock of different species, sizes, and growth stages, a very detailed analysis of forest make-up was required to estimate the value loss associated with disturbance events.

Expert Perspective

❓How do we know?

The authors compare the disturbance rates and resulting changes in tree mortality and timber values by twice measuring forest inventory plots across the eastern United States for two decadal periods. The inventory plots measure forest mortality, composition, and value dynamics on a very fine scale, which gives the new analysis the ability to make detailed estimates of changing forest value.

The authors first calculated the background mortality rate of forests between 2005 and 2015 and between 2014 and 2024. Their calculations found no significant difference in the background mortality rate during this period. The team could then estimate expected losses for the period between 2014 and 2024 based on forest inventories and disturbance rates between 2005 and 2015. The difference between realized losses and expected losses during that decade helped them understand how much was "unexpected"-or, rather, due to changes in the environment likely driven by climate change.

Notably, the authors state that this analysis does not indicate a trend of growing climate-related disturbances. Rather, the two-point analysis shows that climate is a factor that increased risk over the past decade in ways that forest owners may not have expected. More research will be needed to determine whether this is a growing risk for eastern forests.

Where can I learn more?

Read the working paper "Growth in Economic Losses Due to Forest Disturbances in the Eastern United States" by RFF Senior Fellow David Wear and John Coulston, a principal scientist at the National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, for a deeper look at the analysis and methodology.

Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy.

Unless otherwise stated, the views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. RFF does not take positions on specific legislative proposals.

For more information, please see our media resources page or contact Media Relations and Communications Manager Annie Tastet.

Related People

David N. Wear

Senior Fellow; Director, Land Use, Forestry, and Agriculture Program

David Wear is a senior fellow and the director of the Land Use, Forestry, and Agriculture Program at RFF.

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