TransUnion 2026 Outlook: Moderate Credit Card Balance Growth and Stable Delinquency Rates Signal Consumer Perseverance

Credit card delinquency rates are forecast to remain virtually flat, with the percentage of consumers 90 or more days past due (90+ DPD) inching up by just one basis point to 2.57%. This stability reflects tighter underwriting and proactive risk management by card issuers-even as consumers contend with inflationary pressures and fluctuating interest rates.

Credit Card Forecast: Small Balance Growth, Stable Delinquencies

*Forecasted

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

The forecast reflects a complex backdrop: inflation remains above target at 2.45%, and unemployment is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% by late 2026, which could put strain on household budgets for certain borrowers. At the same time, multiple anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts over the next year should ease borrowing costs and provide some relief to consumers.

Delinquency Trends Across Other Credit Products

• Auto Loans: Accounts 60+ DPD are expected to reach 1.54% (+3 bps YoY), marking the fifth straight year of higher delinquencies-though each increase has become progressively smaller.
• Mortgages: Accounts 60+ DPD are projected to hit 1.65% (+11 bps YoY) in December 2026, influenced by a modest rise in unemployment.
• Unsecured Personal Loans: Consumers 60+ DPD are forecast at 3.75% (+1 bps YoY), driven partly by macroeconomic pressures and increased non-prime originations.

"Delinquency rates across most credit products are expected to see slight increases, which is not surprising given the unsettled economic environment," said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. "The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, and consumers appear to be managing their finances reasonably well. We'll continue to monitor these trends closely to determine whether this signals a broader improvement in consumer credit health."

Serious Delinquency Rates For Other Products Are Expected to See Only Slight Increases in 2026

*Forecasted

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

"The smallest year-over-year growth in credit card balances in more than a decade, combined with stable delinquency rates, underscores the relative strength and resilience of consumer credit behavior-even amid broader economic uncertainty," said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. "For lenders, these trends present an opportunity to build deeper relationships with responsible borrowers while continuing to prioritize prudent risk management."

TransUnion's forecasts are based on various economic assumptions, such as expected consumer spending, disposable personal income, home prices, inflation, interest rates, real GDP growth rates and unemployment rates, among other metrics. The forecasts could change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy. Better-than-expected improvements in the economy, such as increases in GDP and disposable income, could also impact these forecasts.

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For tips on how factors like utilization rate and payment history impact credit, visit TransUnion's blog on responsible credit card use.