State’s unique split-ticket voting history analyzed in Inauguration Week lecture

As polarization between the country's two political parties and the ideological divide among U.S. citizens continues to grow, North Carolina has - for the past 40-plus years - remained an anomaly when it comes to its voters splitting their tickets for big-stage elections.

In eight of the past 12 presidential elections - 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2016, 2020 and, most recently, 2024 -the Tar Heel State voted for a governor of one party and a president of another (and different parties for senator and governor in six of the last eight). The state's unique split-ticket voting history was the subject of a lecture presented by East Carolina University Political Science Professor Dr. Peter L. Francia Monday night titled "Split-Ticket Voting in North Carolina: Understanding the 2024 Elections and the Road to 2026."

The lecture, in addition to Sunday night's worship service at Butler Chapel, helped kick off Inauguration Week for Campbell University's sixth president, Dr. William M. Downs, who earned his doctorate in political science from Emory University in Atlanta and who - as former dean of ECU's Thomas Harriott College of Arts & Sciences - brought in Francia to run ECU'S Center for Survey Research under the college's oversight.

"North Carolina has a rich, fascinating political history," Downs told the audience in the Oscar N. Harris Student Union theater Monday night before introducing Francia. "We are a highly and hotly contested battleground state. Our rapidly growing population with a changing set of demographics means that our public opinion and our voting behavior in this state are both volatile. We have deep divisions marked by disagreements over voting rights, executive power and allegations of gerrymandering. As a result, we are home to a state electorate noted for something called split-ticket voting. And that makes our state a pretty exciting place to study public opinion and political behavior.

"We have a front row seat in North Carolina to some fascinating political theater."

Francia, who has been featured by national media outlets including Fox News, CNN, National Public Radio, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, started his presentation with North Carolina's 2024 election, where state voters elected Republican Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by a 51 to 48 percent margin for president and Democrat Josh Stein over Mark Robinson by an overwhelming 55 to 43 percent margin (both figures, he noted, were accurately predicted by ECU's polling center).

North Carolina was one of only three states (joining New Hampshire and Vermont) to split the tickets for president and governor in 2024. In the other states, both in the northeast, voters went Democrat for president and Republican for governor. The same three states had similar results in 2020 and 2016.

"The national expectation is that split-ticket voting has declined and that voters are more ideologically sorted," Francia said. "The national trends are that we're ideologically sorting ourselves by our politics and by our party. You don't hear about many conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans anymore; those terms look funny today compared to 40 years ago. These trends point to the thought that we should see straight-ticket voting everywhere, and yet we don't in North Carolina."

Francia and ECU Professor Dr. Jay Morris polled 1,250 North Carolina voters in 2024 to learn more about the motivations behind split-ticket voters. Their research found that 45 percent of those who voted Trump for president and Stein for governor were Republican, compared to 49 percent independents and only 6 percent Democrats (none of the split-ticket voters chose Harris for president and Robinson for governor). Of those split-ticketers, only 4 percent approved of Joe Biden's presidency, compared to 34 percent who approved of former Gov. Roy Cooper.

And of those voters, the economy was the overwhelming "most important issue," cited by 76 percent of those polled (compared to 51 percent nationally). Very young voters (18-29) and very old voters (over 65) were more likely to vote split ticket than other age groups.

"Our research lends evidence to the argument that these voters were punishing the Democratic party at the presidential level for the economy, and not necessarily at the state level," Francia said. He added that he doesn't believe North Carolina is less polarized than the rest of the nation, but rather voters in the state are more open to voting candidate over party (pointing to the considerable controversial aspects that marred Robinson's run for governor that likely swayed many).

Francia said the upcoming 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina will be an interesting and important one as former Gov. Roy Cooper looks to become the first Democratic senator in the state since Kay Hagan was elected in 2008.

"If you study midterm elections, you know the party of the president usually loses seats in a midterm election," he said. "If history holds, Roy Cooper should benefit. But recent history has also been very unkind to Democratic candidates for Senate. If polls are showing a close race near Election Day, [Republican candidate Michael Whatley] would have an advantage, because usually the 'tie goes to the Republican' in North Carolina races."

Francia's 90-minute presentation included questions from the audience and a personal "thank you" to Downs for kick-starting his career in political polling at ECU.

"I'm grateful to Bill Downs and his vision to bring the center over to the College of Arts & Sciences a decade ago," he said. "Campbell University has a leader who is forward-looking, who is competent and who is a real leader. I think you're lucky to have him as your new president."

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