False Choices: Balancing Democracy and Development in U.S. Africa Policy

Commentary by Oge Onubogu and Khasai Makhulo

Published October 21, 2025

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's July directive for the Department of State and U.S. officials to refrain from commenting on the "fairness or integrity" of elections abroad comes ahead of several critical elections in Africa, where incumbents are testing the resilience of democratic institutions, such as in important elections in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, and Tanzania this year, and in Uganda and Zambia next year. To many observers on the continent, this directive signals a shift in the United States' longstanding foreign policy position as an advocate of democracy, rule of law, and governance.

The Trump administration's focus on a commercial diplomacy strategy for Africa that prioritizes "trade over aid" is happening against a backdrop of inconsistent democratic trends across the continent. While many African leaders welcome this approach as an end to U.S. lectures about democratic practices, it is in the United States' best interest to continue to support democratic stability in Africa, as this is vital for achieving its commercial diplomacy goals.

While recent elections in Senegal, Botswana, Ghana, and Malawi have highlighted the growing strength of democracy in Africa through peaceful transfers of power, stronger opposition parties, and growing adherence to the rule of law, they have also showcased the frustrations of citizens with their political class to deliver better socioeconomic outcomes for the people.

Against this backdrop, the CSIS Africa Program convened a private roundtable under the Chatham House Rule of non-attribution. Insights from this discussion examined the evolving landscape for democracy support initiatives in Africa and how African countries and partners are navigating the current shifts in U.S. foreign policy. The following key insights emerged from the discussion:

• Tackle the False Choice Dilemma: The shift in U.S. foreign policy to prioritize commercial diplomacy over democracy support presents a false dilemma. Development and democracy in Africa are not mutually exclusive; the relationship between the two is more nuanced than is often described by those who claim that "Western-style" democracy is not for Africans, or by those who see democracy as an end in itself. Moving beyond this false dichotomy of democracy versus development and instead focusing on strengthening specific democratic institutions and policies that can enable equitable economic growth will be beneficial to both the U.S. and African countries.
• Confront the Reality of Declining U.S. Democracy Support in Africa: African civil society organizations and partners are coming to terms with the fact that the United States has sharply pulled back from its traditional role of strengthening democracy abroad. First-hand observer accounts from the recent election in Malawi confirm evidence of the U.S. retreat. While a lack of public statements from African leaders may suggest that many of them embrace this pullback of U.S. democracy support, African civil society organizations, on the other hand, are responding to the U.S. pullback with a mix of understated critique, a pivot towards self-reliance, and consideration of other sources of support for their work. In addition, non-democratic actors may leverage the decline in U.S. democracy support to gain greater influence on the continent.
• Inform U.S.-Africa Policy Direction: Secretary Rubio's directive, along with the Trump administration's commercial diplomacy strategy and the dismantling of major institutions such as the U.S Agency for International Development, marks one of the most significant reorientations of U.S. foreign policy towards Africa in recent years. While this pivot has been welcomed by some African leaders, it risks prioritizing short-term commercial interests over democratic values if not properly implemented. If the administration's aim is for commercial diplomacy to drive development in a way that aid has fallen short, then it must consider the political environment its policies are enabling. This moment is an opportunity for the U.S.-Africa policy community to work together-and with Congress-to inform the administration's new policy direction in a way that genuinely applies lessons learned from decades of U.S. partnership with Africa and is mutually beneficial for the U.S. and African countries.
• Prioritize Action Over Talk: Results matter. The gap between the ideal of democracy and its performance is a key dynamic shaping African society today. While African citizens consistently express strong support for democracy, their support is increasingly conditional on democratic institutions delivering tangible improvements to their lives, such as better economic conditions and reliable public services. Democracy support is often equated to unidirectional funding flowing from "established" democracies to "emerging" democracies to implement specific activities, while deemphasizing mutual learning. Given that the traditional model of democracy support has essentially collapsed, this current crisis presents an opportunity for U.S., African, and international organizations in the democracy strengthening community to take stock and reframe the concept of democracy support around ways that will make democracy deliver tangible results both now and in the future.

Secretary Rubio's directive signifies an important U.S. foreign policy shift from prioritizing democratic values and electoral oversight in Africa to focusing on strategic interests and commercial deals. While it also represents a departure from the traditional U.S. role as a global leader in democracy and governance support, it remains to be seen how consistently this directive will be applied and what the long-term consequences will be for U.S relations with African countries, and for the United States' role on the global stage.

Oge Onubogu is the director and senior fellow of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Khasai Makhulo is a research assistant with the Africa Program at CSIS.

This commentary is made possible by the generous support of the Open Society Foundations.

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