The Missing Link in Development: Scaling Science for Sustainable Development in the Global South

By Ravi Nandi, Innovation Systems Scientist and project lead at CIMMYT, Bangladesh; Nora Hanke-Louw, DCR and Project Coordinator at IWMI, South Africa; Nedumaran Swamikannu, Principal Scientist in Agricultural Economics at ICRISAT, Hyderabad; Apurba Kumar Chowdhury, Professor and Dean at Uttar Banga Krishi Viswavidyalaya, West Bengal, India; Pashupati Pokhrel, Senior Agriculture Development Officer and Division Chief at the Planning and Monitoring Division, Ministry of Industry, Agriculture and Cooperative, Province No. 1, Biratnagar, Nepal; and Wais Kabir, Former Executive Chairman of the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), Government of Bangladesh

Scaling innovations is a critical priority in public policy and practice for achieving lasting change in the Global South. Still, scaling must be done responsibly, with attention to local contexts, potential risks, and the need for inclusive benefits. Across the developing world, governments are working to tackle challenges such as poverty, hunger, environmental degradation, and climate vulnerability through large-scale programs. However, many lack the enabling policies, institutional capacity, effective mechanisms, and research capabilities needed to ensure these initiatives succeed nationally. As a result, there is a significant risk of failure to leverage national and global knowledge and innovation systems, wasted public resources, and missed opportunities for smallholder farmers.

CGIAR's 'Scaling for Impact¹(S4I) A program that is fully dedicated to scaling food, land, and water systems innovations. Unlike past fragmented or project-level approaches, this initiative takes a whole-of-CGIAR, portfolio-wide approach to integrate scaling into every part of the research and innovation process. The program is embedded in the broader concept of the science of scaling ²', and offers a much-needed shift in how we approach this challenge. While the program is embedded in the science of scaling, its primary focus is on the practice of scaling and ensuring that the innovations generated by CGIAR and its partners are made accessible and used by millions of smallholder farmers, value chain actors, and consumers. Drawing on CGIAR's S4I Program, the science of scaling, and high-impact examples from the Global South, this article highlights when and where government-led approaches to scaling innovations might be appropriate. Specifically, we propose establishing a National Development Centre for Scaling (NDCS) or a similar institution within a public institution to guide the responsible, inclusive, and effective scaling of innovations in a specific country or region.

The Challenge: Scaling Without Readiness

In many parts of the Global South, governments sometimes implement development programs simultaneously at the national or sub-national level. While this approach can reflect good intentions and a desire for broad reach, it may not always fully consider important factors that influence outcomes. For instance, such programs may not sufficiently take into account the wide contextual diversity across states, districts, and communities, differences that can be geographical, economic, cultural, legal, social, or institutional. In addition, programs are at times introduced without a thorough testing or adaptation phase, which can limit opportunities to adjust interventions before they are rolled out more broadly. Furthermore, as noted in the CGIAR's Scaling Readiness framework, pilot projects are often developed and tested under relatively controlled conditions that may not fully capture the complexities of real-world settings; this can reduce their effectiveness when expanded. Finally, some government departments could benefit from further strengthening of institutional tools and frameworks to better assess whether an innovation is ready for scaling and likely to achieve sustained impact³.

The Promise of the Science of Scaling

The book Scaling Impact: Innovation for the Public Good⁴, along with research from CGIAR, offers a more grounded and evidence-based framework for scaling development innovations. This approach is guided by four key principles. The first is justification, which asks why an innovation should be scaled and considers the ethical implications of doing so (e.g. inclusivity). The second is optimality, which emphasizes that scaling should be done at the right pace and scope, as scaling too quickly or broadly can lead to unintended harm. The third principle, coordination, highlights the importance of collaboration among researchers, governments, Community-Based Organizations (CBOs), the private sector, communities, and funders to ensure aligned and effective efforts. Finally, dynamic evaluation calls for ongoing monitoring and adjustment to manage risks and enhance outcomes.

These principles are especially relevant in the Global South, where scaling failures can result in significant social and economic costs. These principles and challenges come to life through real-world experiences, as illustrated in the following case studies, which highlight both the successes and setbacks encountered when scaling innovations across diverse contexts.

Case I: TINP vs BINP - A Tale of Two Scaling Efforts

One of the most telling cases of the challenges and lessons in scaling development innovations comes from South Asia. The Tamil Nadu Integrated Nutrition Project⁵ (TINP), It is often cited as a model of success in India. Supported by a US$81 million credit from the International Development Association (IDA), the program trained and employed local women to monitor child growth, deliver targeted supplementary feeding, and promote health education and maternal care. It was credited with significantly reducing malnutrition and child mortality across Tamil Nadu.

Inspired by TINP's success, Bangladesh adopted a similar model through the Bangladesh Integrated Nutrition Project⁶ (BINP), launched in the late 1990s with a five-year budget of about US$60 million. Despite using many of the same core components, BINP failed to replicate the results seen in Tamil Nadu. Several key factors contributed to this outcome. The health infrastructure, education levels, and gender norms in Bangladesh were markedly different, making direct transfer of the model ineffective. Moreover, the project took a more centralized, top-down approach with less community involvement than TINP, and it did not adequately adapt to local conditions during its design or implementation.

This contrast between TINP and BINP underscores a crucial lesson in scaling: success in one context does not guarantee success in another. Without thoughtful piloting and adaptation to local realities, even the most well-regarded innovations can fall short.

Case II: Scaling the ICT4BXW App in Rwanda

A notable example from Rwanda highlights the importance of supporting conditions when scaling digital innovations. The ICT4BXW app⁷, designed to help extension workers manage Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW), delivered promising results in peri-urban districts. However, attempts to scale it to more remote areas encountered significant barriers. Limited phone access, unreliable electricity, poor training, and weak network infrastructure hindered adoption and effectiveness. Without addressing these underlying constraints, broader expansion was not feasible. Many digital agriculture initiatives in Africa, such as farmer advisory apps, perform well in pilot or controlled environments but struggle when extended to areas with low smartphone usage or limited connectivity. The key takeaway is that scaling a core innovation often requires complementary investments in infrastructure, capacity building, and access to ensure effectiveness beyond the pilot stage.

Case III. Orange-Fleshed Sweet Potato (OFSP) in Bangladesh and Sub-Saharan Africa

OFSP is recognized as "the single most successful example of biofortification of a staple crop," particularly in sub-Saharan Africa⁸. OFSP emerged as a disruptive innovation, addressing the pressing issue of vitamin A deficiency in children under five. The success of OFSP in Africa is largely due to its direct response to widespread vitamin A deficiency, combined with the development of locally adapted varieties that are easy for smallholder farmers to grow and accept. Strong leadership from scientists and institutions, alongside community-based scaling approaches and donor support, further enabled its adoption and nutritional impact.

Case IV: Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF) in Andhra Pradesh, India

ZBNF expanded rapidly in Andhra Pradesh, India. It now represents one of the largest attempts to bring agroecology to scale in the region, with approximately 0.63 million farmers under implementation. Pointing to its adoption at scale as an indication of its perceived value among farming communities^9-12. However, concerns emerged about scientific validation and long-term sustainability^13,14. This underlines the tension between scaling for visibility versus scaling with evidence. This shows that rapid scaling must be backed by continuous evaluation and feedback systems to track long-term effectiveness.

Case V: Brazil's Bolsa Família Program - A Case of Systemic Scaling

Brazil's Bolsa Família Program (BFP) is a leading example of how a well-designed initiative can successfully scale from a local effort into a nationally impactful poverty alleviation program. Originally launched as a small municipal project, BFP eventually reached over 13 million families across the country. Its core model, conditional cash transfers tied to school attendance and health check-ups, proved effective in improving human development outcomes. Strong political will and continuity across changing governments ensure long-term commitment. A unified national registry, Cadastro Único, enabled efficient targeting and monitoring. Just as importantly, the program featured an adaptive design, allowing local governments the flexibility to tailor delivery mechanisms to their specific contexts. The key lesson from Bolsa Família is that scaling requires more than just replication and expansion. It involves building institutional infrastructure and embedding mechanisms for dynamic evaluation and adaptation. The program's success demonstrates that inclusive and resilient systems are essential for scaling development innovations in a way that is both sustainable and equitable.

Case VI: India's Digital Payments Revolution - Government-Led Scaling in Action

India's digital payments transformation stands out as a compelling case of successful, government-led scaling. The launch of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in 2016 by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) marked a turning point in how financial transactions are conducted across the country. UPI, which enables seamless, real-time payments across banks, quickly became central to India's financial ecosystem. Several key factors have driven this success. First, strong political will and a clear digital inclusion agenda ensured alignment with broader financial inclusion and governance reforms. Second, UPI was built on a robust public digital infrastructure.¹⁵ Government policies also played a great role. Schemes like Jan Dhan Yojana (bank accounts for all), direct benefit transfers (DBT), and even demonetization pushed both people and service providers towards using digital platforms. At the same time, private companies were encouraged to join in, which gave fintech startups and banks space to innovate and compete. This helped improve access and the quality of services.

Case VII. From Pilot to Production: Scaling AI Projects in the Enterprise

A recent study found that while many companies test small AI projects successfully in pilot programs, most of them fail when rolled out on a larger scale. In fact, about 88% of AI pilots never make it into full production. The main reasons are that pilots work in controlled settings with clean data, but real business systems are messy and harder to integrate with. Many companies also lack the tools, processes, and skilled people needed to keep AI systems running in the real world. So, even though the idea works in a test, it often collapses when applied across the whole organization¹⁸. This clearly shows that success on a small scale does not guarantee success at a large scale.

Institutionalizing Scaling for Development

Drawing from the diverse case studies across the developing world, one central insight emerges with clarity: without a dedicated, evidence-driven institutional mechanism to guide scaling, development programs risk failure, inefficiency, and missed impact. Scaling is not replication; it demands adaptation, system alignment, and continuous learning. To ensure innovations are scaled timely, cost-effectively, and equitable manner, countries may establish a 'National Development Centre for Scaling (NDCS)' or similar type, with experts representing public, private, civil society organizations and international agencies, anchored in government, informed by science, context and equipped to coordinate across sectors, tailor strategies to local contexts, and drive transformative change at scale. Institutionalizing scaling may also include mechanisms for critical learning and reflection, including the willingness to pause, adapt, or even close down initiatives that prove ineffective or unsustainable, an essential part of responsible, evidence-based scaling.

Scaling for Impact (S4I): A new CGIAR initiative

CGIAR's Executive Managing Director, Dr Ismahane Eloufi, "CGIAR is the world's largest agricultural innovation network. It plays a leading role in agricultural research for development". Over the past five decades, CGIAR investments have delivered tenfold returns, resulting in more abundant and affordable food, while contributing to a reduction in hunger, poverty, and land degradation ^16,17.

While CGIAR institutions have successfully developed agricultural and environmental innovations and demonstrated scaling in the local context, it is neither practical nor efficient for them to lead national/regional scaling instead, countries are better positioned to do so. Instead, CGIAR's S4I program role in coordination with countries may evolve to:

• Act as a scaling advisor, helping governments design and assess scaling strategies.
• Serves as a strategic advisor to international financial institutions such as the World Bank, regional development banks, development partners, and UN development agencies such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF).
• Lead capacity building programs, train public officials, and implement partners.
• Serve as a one-stop solution for research-for-development, capacity building, fostering convergence, and providing scaling advice to channel resources based on innovation readiness and potential for impact.

This advisory model aligns with CGIAR's strengths, its scientific expertise, global presence, and credibility, while enabling governments to take ownership of large-scale implementation.

Developing countries pursue ambitious goals under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and scaling innovations responsibly is essential. But this cannot be left to chance. Without the right institutional structures, even well-intentioned programs risk becoming expensive failures. Integrating scaling science into government planning can make public spending more efficient and help design development programs (evidence-based) that are both adaptive and inclusive. It also reduces the risk of failure during implementation or extension and helps avoid social backlash. Most importantly, it can lead to lasting improvements in key areas such as nutrition, climate resilience, and livelihoods.

Scaling development innovations takes more than ambition; they require strong systems (e.g., right policy, institutional support, partnerships), dedicated resources, sound science, and close collaboration. CGIAR's Scaling for Impact Program (S4I) may provide valuable tools, demonstrations of scaling of innovations at the local context, but national governments may lead by embedding scaling into their institutions and policies. Creating dedicated NDCSs or similar institutions in ministries or planning departments may be the breakthrough many countries may need. With CGIAR's S4I as a strategic partner, governments can move from scattered pilot projects to programs that deliver real, nationwide impact. Success depends on having the right structures in place, so scaling is evidence-based, locally relevant, and continuously improved. With clear strategy and public leadership, today's innovations can become tomorrow's national success stories, delivering lasting, inclusive development for millions.

Note: The views expressed in this opinion blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of CGIAR or its partner institutions. This blog contributes to SDG 16 (Strong Institutions).

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