IFRC: Anticipation and preparedness can save lives ahead of a potentially historic El Niño

Panama City, 22 October 2026 - Authorities across Latin America and the Caribbean still have time to implement and reinforce early warning systems, anticipatory action, and imminent emergency response mechanisms to protect communities facing the highest vulnerability from the impacts of El Niño. This is the call from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), following the World Meteorological Organization's announcement of an intensifying El Niño that could persist until February 2027 and rank among the strongest recorded since 1950.

The IFRC also urges the adoption of territory-specific strategies that address the impacts of drought, extreme heat, wildfires, and floods-events that could be further exacerbated by the compound effects of El Niño and the climate crisis. Across all contexts, strengthening preparedness among the most vulnerable groups is critical, including farming families, Indigenous communities, female-headed households, migrants, and displaced persons.

"El Niño may be historic, but its consequences are not set in stone. A weather phenomenon turns into a disaster when it reaches a farming family with no water reserves, an indigenous community where warnings arrive too late, or people who do not know what to do if wildfires approach their homes; we can still make a difference," said Loyce Pace, IFRC Regional Director for the Americas. "The forecasts are in hand, communities are organized, and the Red Cross is ready. What is needed now is to expand and reinforce collaboration with governments, humanitarian agencies, and scientific institutions to translate knowledge, expertise, and technical and financial resources into life-saving solutions."

The IFRC has in place a regional plan to anticipate and respond to the potential impacts of El Niño, which typically drives severe drought across the Central American Dry Corridor and northern South America, while triggering heavy rainfall and flooding across the Andean countries, the Southern Cone, and the Caribbean coast of Central America. Furthermore, through its Disaster Response Emergency Fund (IFRC-DREF), the IFRC is already supporting drought preparedness in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Colombia, multi-sectoral drought assessments in Honduras, and humanitarian assistance for flood-affected communities in Bocas del Toro, Panama, also linked to El Niño.

Guatemala: Acting before drought strikes

In Guatemala, where drought severely impacts families relying on subsistence farming, the Guatemalan Red Cross activated its Early Action Protocol after risk thresholds were confirmed through technical data from meteorological authorities, with whom it maintains an operational agreement. Backed by the IFRC-DREF, more than 296,000 Swiss francs were allocated to protect over 10,000 people through multipurpose cash transfers, safe drinking water, water filters, and storage systems in schools.

Each family decides how to use the financial assistance, whether for food, medicine, savings, or investing in small businesses or crop production. Support prioritizes the needs of children under five, persons with disabilities, and individuals with underlying medical conditions. Local Red Cross teams have conducted assessments since the first early warning signals emerged, and community feedback-gathered through direct interviews-is used to continuously refine the response.

Honduras: Understanding needs before they escalate

In Honduras, prolonged drought is already affecting one million people. A red alert is active across 103 municipalities, with another 234 under various alert levels, collectively covering 80% of the national territory. The Honduran Red Cross, supported by the IFRC-DREF, is conducting door-to-door assessments alongside local municipal authorities and community members to evaluate needs across water, food security, health, livelihoods, and protection in the departments of Choluteca, Comayagua, El Paraíso, Francisco Morazán, La Paz, and Valle.

The initiative aims to anticipate the magnitude of upcoming humanitarian needs, including those linked to water scarcity or improperly stored water. These conditions can trigger gastrointestinal and vector-borne illnesses, and may force children to walk long distances to fetch water, putting them at heightened risk of dropping out of school. In the Central District, chemical and bacteriological water testing, alongside community fumigation campaigns, are already underway in collaboration with municipal authorities in areas experiencing spikes in dengue cases.

Panama: Two extremes within one country

In Panama, heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in Bocas del Toro, first in early July and again in August. With support from the IFRC-DREF, the Panamanian Red Cross is assisting 3,665 people through cash transfers, distribution of hygiene kits, community clean-up campaigns, and dengue prevention efforts.

At the same time, the provinces of the Dry Arc (Arco Seco-Herrera, Los Santos, and Coclé), currently affected by the recent earthquake, are facing severe rainfall deficits that have already disrupted planting cycles, reduced agricultural yields, and driven up basic food prices. More severe drought conditions are projected between October 2026 and March 2027, prompting the government to declare a national state of emergency on 25 August. In this region, the Panamanian Red Cross is documenting community impacts, providing guidance on protection against extreme heat-with particular focus on older persons and persons with disabilities-and delivering training on water conservation.

The IFRC's investment in Early Action Protocols and the Preparedness for Effective Response (PER) approach has enabled National Red Cross Societies to build operational capacity, identify gaps, and establish structured pathways to enhance disaster anticipation and response. These methodologies, developed and refined across the Red Cross network, are now being shared with government partners. In collaboration with the Coordination Center for the Prevention of Disasters in Central America and the Dominican Republic (CEPREDENAC), national civil protection authorities, and National Red Cross Societies, the IFRC is adapting the PER approach to integrate into national disaster risk management systems.