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US banned Microsoft from sponsoring residency for foreign workers, NFL asked SCOTUS to let states regulate prediction markets, Goldman will pay top execs $500M in special bonuses, US will not attack Iran before the midterms, and techs stocks slumped following a report that OpenAI's ARR is $20B less than previously signaled.

Polymarket recently launched Polymarket Institutional Research, a publication exploring the intersection of prediction markets with the global financial system. It's proprietary research straight from their institutional desk with super valuable insights for public market investors. Your firm can request access here.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

• US stocks slid yesterday as new details about OpenAI revenue spooked investors

• Euro is on track to fall for a fifth week as it trades near a 17-month low

Earnings

• TSMC beat Q3 revenue estimates on record $46.7B in sales, up 50% YoY, due to ‌surging demand for AI applications (RT)

• PepsiCo beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates but cut its earnings forecast as its North American business continues to lag (CNBC)

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Marco Rubio has been delivering banger after banger every time he steps on a podium, not to mention he's one of the most effective and successful picks of Trump's presidency. How is he not equal to JD Vance here??

• Get a $25 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• Goldman will pay top execs $500M in special bonuses (FT)

• Trump says US 'will not attack Iran' before midterms (FT)

• Chinese bonds become source of cheap money for global borrowers (BBG)

• Japan deal drought cuts IPO fundraising to lowest in 14 years (BBG)

• Private credit firms see rare growth shortcut with BDCs for sale (BBG)

• Apollo has traded $35B since it began making markets in private credit (BBG)

• Oracle, Broadcom, and SpaceX seek mega debt deals to fund AI chips (WSJ)

• Arini Capital is down 16% YTD (WSJ)

• 30% options pop in mere minutes shows power of Discord 'finfluencers' (BBG)

• Anthropic IPO investors struggle to put a price on AI risk (BBG)

• OpenAI ARR is $20B less than previously signaled (FT)

• New Apple CEO John Ternus named Steve Smith as new M&A chief (BBG)

• Larry Ellison invested $17B in son's Warner Bros. takeover (BBG)

• AI pricing lawsuit against McDonald's raises new antitrust questions (RT)

• NFL asked SCOTUS to let states regulate prediction markets (BBG)

• US banned Microsoft from sponsoring foreign workers for residency (FT)

• Fed fined Amex $350M for insufficient anti-money laundering program (RT)

• EY challenges Deloitte in outsourcing as revenue growth accelerates (FT)

• US will livestream firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter (RT)

A Message from Polymarket

Polymarket Institutional Research is a new publication exploring the intersection of Polymarket with the global financial system - original analysis built directly on our markets, written by the Institutional Desk. From Anthropic's valuation strip, to the Hormuz reopening gap, to the future of Lagarde at the ECB.

If your financial institution is looking to engage with event contracts, the Polymarket Institutional Desk is scaling up. For information on block trades, market making, and commercial data sales on either our US or international exchanges, reach out below.

What's inside:

• Weekly market briefings

• Deep dives on forecast scenarios and LP opportunities

• Quarterly liquidity & microstructure reports with full depth data

• Direct access to our research team via dedicated Slack

Request access to Polymarket Institutional Research.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• $100B-listed Starbucks is exploring a takeover bid for $40B-listed Chipotle

• Italian insurance giant and parent Generali is preparing takeover bid for $8.5B-listed private bank Banca Generali

• Italian holding group Caltagirone rejected Italian lender BMPS' bid for $25B-listed peer Banco BPM and Banca Generali

• French lender Credit Agricole also did not tender its stake in BMPS' bid for Banco BPM

• Carlyle's deal to acquire the $10B worth of international assets of sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil expired

• Coca-Cola is seeking to unwind its $5B acquisition of UK coffeehouse Costa ‌Coffee after an earlier sales process this year failed

• RBC Global Asset Management will vote against the $4.8B breakup and sale of Canadian industrial REIT H&R REIT

• KKR-backed Crescent Energy will acquire Devon Energy's drilling portfolio in Texas for $4.2B

• Chevron will divest its stakes in ​Hess Midstream and DJ Basin crude oil ‌midstream assets as part of a broader restructuring that will see it take a $3B-$4B hit

• Investment firms Elliott and Siris are exploring a $2B sale of infrastructure software provider Gigamon

• Drugmaker Viatris will buy Pacira BioSciences for $1.65B cash at a 45% premium

• Management led by CEO Moussa Diao and trading manager Herve Bouvet acquired Africa-focused trader Oryx Energies for $1B in an MBO

• Italian engineering company Trevi Finanziaria Industriale may reject an improved $370M cash takeover offer from larger peer Webuild as undervalued

• South African miner Gold Fields will acquire the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator and related rights in Western Australia from global miner BHP

• SpaceX will acquire 100% of PE firm Grain Management's nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio

• Porsche raised its stake in German auto racing team Manthey Racing to 67%

VC

• Chinese AI agent startup Manus raised a $500M funding round co-led by Boyu Capital ​and IDG Capital after being unwound from Meta

• Oratomic, a quantum computing startup, raised a $475M Series B at a $5.4B valuation co-led by ARCH Venture Partners, Spark Capital, Khosla Ventures, Index Ventures, General Catalyst, and Bezos Expeditions

• Atomic Machines, a company building micro-machines with AI and programmable manufacturing, emerged from stealth with $250M from One Investment Management, Gigafund, XTX Ventures, Valor Equity Partners, University of California, and others

• Voltus, a virtual power plant operator, raised a $225M Series D led by Generation Investment Management

• Arena, an AI evaluation company, raised a $200M Series B at a $3.1B valuation co-led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and Khosla Ventures

• VEIR, a designer and manufacturer of superconducting power delivery systems for AI data centers, raised a $110M Series C co-led by Matter Venture Partners and Tyche Partners

• Gallatin AI, an AI-native military logistics company, raised a $50M Series A from 8VC, Silent Ventures, and others

• Fortastra, a developer of maneuverable spacecraft for on-orbit security, raised a $30M Series A led by First In

• Catalyst, an AI trading agents startup, raised a $30M seed round led by Sequoia

• Rein Security, the AI-native runtime security platform for enterprises, raised a $25M Series A co-led by Glilot Capital and Sienna Venture Capital

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Solidigm, the flash memory unit of Korean chip darling SK Hynix, picked banks for a US IPO that could raise $10B at a $100B valuation

• Nvidia-backed data center firm Firmus shelved its record $5.5B Australia IPO after low demand and is weighing a private funding round instead

• Belron, the windshield giant of Belgian conglomerate D'Ieteren Group, picked banks for a record Europe IPO that could fetch a $35B valuation

• RNA-focused biotech Sanegene Bio confidentially filed for a Hong Kong IPO

• Avaada Electro, the Brookfield-backed solar manufacturing arm of Indian power firm Avaada Group, plans to launch its $785M India IPO next month

• Malaysian chip firm SQ Advanced Interconnect is considering raising $75M at a $300M valuation in a Malaysia IPO in Q1

• Nvidia-backed AI drug developer Iambic Therapeutics is seeking to raise $160M in its IPO

• UK fintech Revolut is targeting a US primary listing

Debt

• Chinese big tech giant Tencent is considering another $5B offshore bond sale

• Waymo raise the size of its debut debt raise to $5B

• Mexican airport Aeropuerto de Cancún completed a $1.8B senior notes offering led by JPMorgan

Funds / Secondaries

• Investors in Guggenheim Partners pulled $2.4B from its four largest mutual funds last month after CEO Mark Walter came under federal investigation

• Healthcare PE firm Aphias Capital raised $1.05B for its debut fund

• Healthcare-focused PE firm Sheridan Capital Partners raised $1.35B across two new funds

• Blackstone raised $1B for a private credit CV for assets in its 2022 vintage led by Allianz

• Energy Capital Partners raised an $834M single-asset CV for Next Wave Energy Partners anchored by GCM Grosvenor, Phoenix Insurance, Ardian, StepStone, and North Hudson Resource Partners

• Ex-a16z partner and Trump AI advisor Sriram Krishnan is seeking to raise $500M for a new VC fund focused on growth-stage AI startups building in national security

• Distressed credit investor Corre Partners raised $220M for a targeted $650M third fund

• Impact investor Encourage Capital is raising a new India-focused PE fund

Apptopia's Chart of the Week

• While up dramatically YoY, new user acquisition of Starlink (SPCX) has slowed, stunting growth

• Historically, Apptopia's MAU estimates have tracked Starlink's reported subscriber milestones

Generate alpha from mobile consumer signals with Apptopia.

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Charles Schwab says 64% of millennials plan to buy crypto

• Crypto market inflows hit $50B this year

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• ICYMI: Deal teams on F2 go from data room to term sheet in hours, with sensitivities and downside cases still run on every deal. Screening now takes an afternoon. Try a demo.

• FT published an interesting piece on how hedge fund leverage has become Wall Street bank's cash cow.

• Also, Bloomberg found that long-shot trades are dominating trading on popular prediction market platforms. No matter how well the information is priced, there's always gonna be some degen blowing it all away.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.