An Aging World: 2025

An Aging World: 2025

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An Aging World: 2025

Introduction

The global population is getting older even faster than envisioned just a decade ago. The inevitable shift towards top-heavy age distributions, unprecedented in human history, constitutes one of the most significant changes and challenges for many societies in the coming decades. The two key demographic causes of population aging are well known. Falling death rates result in more people who live to older ages, and falling fertility reduces the population at younger ages. These demographic changes create a seemingly inescapable "fertility trap"-a growing share of older people in a population destined to continually shrink. Moreover, sustained low fertility below the "replacement" level (about two births per couple) accelerates the process by eventually causing the number of parents to decline each year. Among the world's most populous countries, the first to experience both a shrinking population and a greater proportion of older people were Russia (where the population decline began in 1996) and Japan (where the population began to fall in 2008). Although other countries have since joined them, the world population overall is expected to keep growing for several decades.

Like past reports in the series, "An Aging World: 2025" addresses diverse audiences, including regional and country level statistical agencies, international and domestic research organizations, academic institutions, and the general public. The first purpose in this report is to look at past, current, and projected counts, proportions, and growth rates of older populations. We report on projections until the year 2060, because "An Aging World: 2015" projected until 2050. Older populations have increased because of worldwide improvements in health services, educational status, and economic development. The second purpose of "An Aging World: 2025" is to summarize socioeconomic statistics for all countries where data are available. Finally, the third purpose of this report is to review the most recent literature and highlight some of the leading areas of research on aging, including the importance of building age-friendly communities, the impact of artificial intelligence in health systems and employment, as well as the impact of humanitarian disasters on an aging population.

The world population surpassed the 8 billion mark in 2023, and there are now 77 countries in which 14 percent or more of the population is at older ages, a key threshold typical of higher income countries. However, not all has gone as expected. There have been at least two events with relevance to population aging: rapidly declining fertility and the COVID-19 pandemic. Their impacts on the economic, health, and overall well-being of the older population are frequently discussed in this report.

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