Ansari Supports Bicameral Bill to Ban Prediction Markets on Government Actions, War, and Events Ripe for Rigging

WASHINGTON - Yesterday, Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03) helped introduce the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. Because many of these "event contracts" are traded on offshore prediction markets, the bill also amends existing laws against illegal gambling to enforce these rules by shutting down payment systems to illegal online platforms and imposing criminal penalties for people in the U.S. who promote, manage, own, or supervise these businesses domestically.

"Prediction markets sell themselves as a place where everyone has an equal shot at winning big. The reality is they're rigged against ordinary people and ripe for abuse - especially when betting on government actions," said Rep. Ansari. "When the President and national security officials are making life and death decisions, the last thing they should be considering is whether they can personally profit. This bill puts an end to that corruption and disturbing national security risk."

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (CT) and Representative Greg Casar (TX-35) are the lead sponsors of the legislation. The bill is co-sponsored by U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper (CO) and Representatives Gabe Amo (RI-01) and Rashida Tlaib (MI-12).

Recent suspicious activity on these prediction markets has raised serious questions about whether Trump administration insiders are using government secrets to make significant personal profit by placing anonymous bets on these platforms. Hours before both the initial strikes on Iran and the extraction of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, several prediction market users placed huge bets predicting the strikes and cashed out for hundreds of thousands of dollars. These prediction markets offer powerful government officials a perverse incentive to pursue policies that are in their personal financial interest, cratering public trust and forcing Americans to suffer bad policies enacted for personal gain. New polling from Data for Progress reveals a majority of voters - including 61% of independents, and 57% of Republicans - support banning wagers on potential government actions, while some 80% of voters oppose betting markets on terrorism or political assassinations.

The opportunities for rigging prediction markets are not limited to government actions and upheaval: any event where insiders know or can control the outcome in advance is ripe for abuse. Notably, prediction market bets on this year's Super Bowl Halftime Show that resulted in huge payouts were likely driven by leaks and inside knowledge. If prediction market CEOs succeed in their radical goal to "financialize everything," they will usher in a new dystopian reality, in which everything in our lives is commodified. The BETS OFF Act would put a stop to these immoral bets and create real consequences for bad actors profiting off of death and corruption.

The bill is endorsed by: VoteVets, American Economic Liberties Project, Win Without War, Americans for Financial Reform, Public Citizen, Groundwork Collaborative, and Center for International Policy Advocacy.

For a one-pager on the bill click HERE. For full bill text click HERE.

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