Argentina: Oilseeds and Products Update

Post maintains its MY2025/26 soybean production forecast at 48 million metric tons (MMT) on 16.5 million hectares (MHA) planted, as timely February rainfall stabilized crop conditions following January dryness. Improved soil moisture and favorable forecasts are expected to mitigate a portion of earlier damage. First-crop yields are largely determined and expected to be strong. Soybean crush remains robust at 43 MMT, supported by more traditional trade flows and reduced whole bean exports to China. For MY2024/25, soybean crush is lowered to 42 MMT on slower farmer selling and reduced bean availability, while exports are reduced to 12.7 MMT, though still projected to reach a record level. Post raises MY2025/26 sunflowerseed production to 5.8 MMT on higher yields and expanded area of 2.7 MHA, as strong domestic prices and firm global vegetable oil demand. MY2025/26 is projected to set new records for sunflowerseed, oil, and meal exports.