Week in Review – Fuel Prices Fall as Market Awaits OPEC+ Direction

Fuel prices have moved downward this week, reflecting expectations of more supply in the future - though some areas of tightness remain possible. Crude futures lost nearly five dollars per barrel this week, as attention turned to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Overall, the outlook continues to be bearish for petroleum products looking ahead to 2026.

In the U.S., the Colonial Pipeline, which supplies most of the Southeast's fuel products, reported a brief outage on Thursday. The company quickly announced plans to bring the pipeline back online within 24 hours. While public reports have been limited, local fuel markets are reflecting only brief delays that are expected to have no impact on last-mile fuel deliveries.

According to Bloomberg, global crude exports rose in September to forty-two million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States accounting for three-quarters of that increase. Iraq has resumed crude exports through Turkey after a two-year pause, but Kirkuk barrels are moving at heavy discounts since European refiners already have their October needs covered. At the same time, Russia's ability to sustain exports is being tested as repeated drone strikes have hit at least fifteen refineries, putting pressure on its energy infrastructure. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar emphasized that purchases of Russian crude remain the decision of private companies despite U.S. calls to cut imports.

Diesel prices opened at $2.2384 on Friday (CME). Refining disruptions in Russia and weaker near-term demand in Europe have weighed on diesel prices, though the market remains concerned about tightening supplies as winter approaches. Some cargoes are already being offered at discounts, reflecting softer buying interest, but heating demand could quickly reverse that trend if inventories come under pressure.

Looking ahead, markets are waiting for the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, which will shape November production levels and could help reset price direction. Russian exports remain a wild card as attacks on infrastructure persist, while European demand patterns and seasonal heating needs will determine whether diesel continues to anchor the fuel market. For now, Bloomberg and CME data point to a market in transition, balancing strong export flows against mounting geopolitical risks and refining disruptions.

Prices in Review

Crude prices declined throughout the week, with losses recorded each day. The steepest drop happened between Monday and Wednesday, as prices fell from $63.67 to $61.57, a $2.10 decrease over two days. Although the pace of decline slowed slightly later in the week, the downward momentum continued through Friday, when prices opened at $60.81. Overall, crude prices dropped 2.86, or -4.49%, compared to Monday's opening.

Diesel prices declined throughout the week, with no days of recovery. The largest single-day drop occurred on Thursday, when prices fell by $0.0357 from the previous day. Diesel opened at $2.2384 on Friday, resulting in a total weekly decrease of $0.1242, or -5.26%.

Gasoline prices also declined throughout the week, with the most significant drop occurring on Wednesday when prices fell by $0.0786. After starting at $2.0047 on Monday, prices slid each day, opening the week at $1.8562 on Friday. This represents a total weekly loss of $0.1485, or -7.41%.