India: Monsoon Advances Amid Emerging El Nino Concerns

India's 2026 kharif season has begun under mixed conditions. The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4 and continues to advance across the country. Reservoir levels remain above the 10-year average, supporting crop prospects. However, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts seasonal rainfall at 90 percent of the long-period average (LPA), with an 84 percent probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall as El Niño conditions develop. As of June 15, cumulative rainfall was 32 percent below normal, while kharif sowing lagged last year's pace by 3 percent. Severe April-May heatwaves increased crop water demand and heat stress risks, particularly in northern and central India. Monsoon performance over the next 3-4 weeks will be critical for crop establishment and production prospects.