University of New Mexico professor explains unusually warm, dry Southwest winter

Does 70 degrees in February sound right? Albuquerque residents experienced just that this past week, part of what is shaping up to be one of the warmest and driest winter stretches in state history.

Joe Galewsky, professor and chair of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at The University of New Mexico, says two compounding factors are driving the historic conditions: a La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean and an exceptionally warm atmosphere.

"La Niña pushes the jet stream northward, steering storms into the Pacific Northwest and leaving the Southwest in its dry wake," Galewsky said. "This is a well-established pattern in which La Niña winters have historically brought dry conditions to New Mexico, Arizona and the Four Corners. What's unusual this time is the warmth."

New Mexico and nine other Western states experienced their warmest November-through-January period in at least 131 years. This winter, temperatures have run 4 to 6 degrees above normal across much of the southern Rockies. When storms did arrive, rain fell at elevations that historically would have received snow and rain-on-snow events can actually accelerate snowmelt.

The winter of 2024-25 was the driest on record for New Mexico, with the lowest statewide snowpack ever recorded. The 2025-26 season is tracking in a similar direction. Four SNOTEL stations in Arizona and four in New Mexico reported record-low peak snow water equivalent last year. The Santa Fe SNOTEL station melted out 47 days earlier than the median in spring 2025 which is the earliest on record.

"We are in historically unprecedented territory for consecutive years," Galewsky said.

While snowfall varies dramatically statewide - from about 3 inches annually in southern desert and plains stations to 100 to 170 inches in the northern mountains - the most critical metric is snow water equivalent in headwater basins.

"This matters because New Mexico's water infrastructure depends on snowpack as a natural reservoir," Galewsky said. "Snowmelt from the Sangre de Cristo and San Juan mountains supplies the Rio Grande and feeds the San Juan-Chama Project, which provides drinking water to Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Los Alamos. When snowpack fails, there's no alternative storage to compensate."

The Rio Grande system reservoir storage ended December 2025 at its fourth-lowest level in 45 years. Agricultural water releases may be reduced this spring, and irrigators relying on surface water may need to tap groundwater earlier than usual - increasing pressure on already stressed aquifers. The San Juan-Chama Project also depends on the Upper Colorado Basin snowpack, which is running well below normal.

Unlike California or the Pacific Northwest, New Mexico receives 60% to 80% of its annual precipitation during the warm season, primarily from the summer monsoon. Missing winter snowpack means losing the buffer that sustains rivers and reservoirs through the hot, dry spring.

"We're effectively running 21st-century weather through 20th-century infrastructure," Galewsky said.

The impacts extend beyond water supply. The National Interagency Fire Center forecasts above-normal wildfire potential for much of eastern New Mexico through spring. Without snow cover to compact grasses, landscapes become continuous fuel beds. The period between snowmelt and the onset of the monsoon - typically April through early July - poses the greatest fire risk.

Residents in the wildland-urban interface should consider defensible space, evacuation planning and insurance coverage ahead of fire season, Galewsky said.

While La Niña is a natural climate pattern, Galewsky emphasized that long-term warming trends are amplifying its effects. New Mexico winters have warmed significantly since the 1970s, and every winter since 2013 has been above the historical average. Four of the 10 warmest winters on record have occurred since 2000.

"This winter isn't an isolated bad year," he said. "Planning should assume this is increasingly normal, not anomalous."

NOAA models suggest El Niño development is possible by mid-2026, which could favor wetter conditions for the Southwest next winter. But Galewsky cautioned that one wet season would not erase accumulated water deficits.

For now, water managers and fire agencies will be watching closely as the state moves into spring, a season that may once again test New Mexico's limited margin for dry winters.