Seasonal Outlook: What This Year’s Weather Could Mean for Water Use

Years like this aren't defined by how much rain falls - they're defined by when it doesn't.

We're off to a start that most producers dread but are all too familiar with - a dry winter followed by a hot, dry, and windy spring.

It's been warm, we haven't had much meaningful rain, and the wind has been doing what it usually does this time of year…blow. None of that is unusual on its own, but the combination of all three tends to move things along faster than expected.

What that usually means is simple.

Irrigation starts earlier.

In dry spring seasons, irrigators often have to water winter crops just to give them a chance at a profitable harvest. The tradeoff is that early watering reduces what's available later, which can limit summer production. In some cases, producers end up pushing the limits of allowable production. In others, limited water availability forces a shift to less profitable crops - and in extreme situations, dryland farming becomes the only option.

Soil moisture is critical during planting. When we get a start like this, pre-watering becomes necessary to replace what's been lost to lack of rainfall and constant wind. As important as that is, it further reduces what can be applied later in the season.

The part that can be misleading is rainfall.

We may catch a shower here and there, and it will look good on the surface, but unless it's enough and timed right, it doesn't always reduce irrigation demand. In some cases, it doesn't change much at all. At this point, the need for pre-watering is becoming more urgent by the day. The timing of rainfall will matter just as much as the totals.

What producers really need right now is cooler weather with slow, steady rain over several days. That's what allows moisture to soak in and stay where it's needed.

Any rain helps, but heavy downpours under these conditions can do more harm than good. Fast rain increases runoff, and in some cases can wash seed out before it has a chance to germinate. That leads to replanting, higher input costs, delayed emergence, and ultimately lower market value.

We'll keep watching conditions as they develop, but for now, that's the main takeaway.

In this district, seasons like this aren't won or lost on total rainfall - they're decided by timing, and how early the pressure starts.

Article by: Odell Ward P.G.