Market Briefs | October 01, 2025

Rice
Rice futures are trading at six-year lows. The November contract has violated previous support at $11.15 and is now testing support at $11. Carryover stocks are up 35% year over year, marking the largest August rice stocks in nearly 40 years. Export demand is slow, with India undercutting prices and expecting a large crop again this year thanks to beneficial conditions during their monsoon season. In fact, in the most recent supply/demand report, exports were lowered by 3 million cwt, all from the long-grain category, on uncompetitive prices and the slow pace of sales. The net result of the report was an increase of 8.7 million cwt in ending stocks, which are now pegged at 53.4 million cwt. The 2025-26 season average on-farm price was lowered by $1.00 from the August report and is now expected to be $12.00/cwt for long grain rice.

Corn
December corn futures have been unable to gain significant footing, slipping back toward recent lows under $4.20 after failing to hold above the 20-day moving average at $4.22. The medium-term bearish target is the 50-day moving average near $4.14, while primary resistance remains at the 100-day moving average at $4.23. USDA's Crop Progress Report showed 71% of the crop mature as of Sept. 28, slightly behind the five-year average. The USDA released its latest estimates of stocks as of Sept. 1, taking a look back at the 2024-25 season. A slight increase was expected from the recent WASDE estimates, but all totaled corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are the lowest in four years.

Soybeans
November soybean futures remain rangebound, holding between recent lows near $10.06 and resistance at $10.13. After last month's sharp decline on Chinese demand concerns, the market has steadied, with bargain buying emerging near the bottom of the range. Early harvest reports point to disappointing yields in parts of the eastern and southern Corn Belt following late-season dryness. However, the bearish argument remains that without a deal with China, the loss of export demand will more than offset realistic production decline expectations. Time will tell on that but reports that China is almost bought up for November soybean needs are certainly concerning.

Wheat
Wheat futures posted new contract lows in all three classes before rebounding to finish near unchanged. The 20-day moving average for Kansas City futures at $5.10 once again capped any further rally attempts. Chicago wheat futures have been fractionally lower while Minneapolis spring wheat futures finished higher. While weekly export sales have improved and have been strong overall this marketing year, global competition remains heavy and continues to pressure values. Technical indicators suggest downside may be limited, though the market has yet to find a firm bottom. For now, wheat's direction remains closely tied to corn.

Cotton
Cotton futures continue to trend lower. December had found support at 65.80 cents, but violated that support in a huge outside trading day on Monday, moving to new multi-year lows and trading below 65 cents by Wednesday. The next downside objective for bears is the December contract low of 64.24 cents. Weak demand is the driving factor in the market, completely overshadowing any concerns about the crop, with weekly net cotton sakes down 54% from the previous four-week average and China noticeably absent from the market. Harvest pressure will also continue to limit the upside potential of the market.

Cattle
Cattle futures continue to trend higher, trading just below record-high prices set in August. Last week, Mexico reported a case of New World Screwworm infestation had been discovered 70 miles south of the U.S. border, which initially led to increased prices. Futures have backed off those levels. The October live cattle contract has support between $228 and $229. Both live and feeder contracts appear to have put in a significant top in August, but the market is still trending higher overall and there is no sign the bull-market is over. Support from supply-side concerns as marketings have been low in recent months continues to buoy prices.

Hogs
Hog futures are also trending higher. Firm cash hog and wholesale pork prices have been supportive. The recent Hogs and Pigs report released last week was also solidly bullish. Estimates were lower than expected across the board. Both current supplies and farrowing intentions indicate that the tight supply situation will continue. The June-August pig crop was only 97.4% of the previous years' crop, and the breeding herd was 98.2% of the previous year.