NSF grants to support novel space weather prediction models and cybersecurity that could help further extraterrestrial infrastructure

Our modern world relies on satellite networks, from television broadcasts, internet connectivity, cell phone service, GPS, defense, weather forecasting, and more. So, what happens when a major space weather event hits one of these satellites, such as a geomagnetic storm caused by a coronal mass ejection? And how can we forecast if these types of events are coming?

Edward Oughton, associate professor of geography and geoinformation science in the College of Science at George Mason University, was recently awarded two grants from the National Science Foundation: $499,837 for "AI-enabled, Uncertainty-Aware Space Weather Risk Characterization and Mitigation for Satellite Operations," and $49,357 as co-PI with Alexander Sprintson, professor and chair of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering in the College of Engineering and Computing, for "NSF Workshop on Security Challenges and Research Directions for Space and Non-Terrestrial Networks."

Impacts of space weather vary from minor signal interference to catastrophic satellite damage. But even signal interference, depending on severity, can have major ramifications for society. Disruptions to GPS satellites, for example, can cause inaccuracies in applications that require centimeter-level accuracy, like precision agriculture, or cause critical infrastructure systems that require GPS timing and synchronization signals to malfunction, like power grids or defense systems. Space weather can burn out key satellite components and knock satellites off their trajectories, costing their respective companies upwards of hundreds of millions of dollars.

"When you don't have reliable forecasts, the critical infrastructure operators are going to take every forecast with a pinch of salt," said Oughton. "We need to be able to predict and provide decent forecasts for these companies to be able to design systems that can withstand these space weather impacts." Especially, he notes, as we increase space exploration. "With humans wanting to go back to the moon and then go beyond that, this is going to keep becoming more and more of an issue."

The nearly $500,000 in funding supports the development of the first end-to-end framework for translating uncertainty in space weather forecasts into actionable risk information for satellite operations, and potential socio-economic impacts, similar to terrestrial weather prediction and risk assessment. This foundational research will combine multiple data sets into machine learning and physics-based models to narrow predictions of geomagnetic storm occurrence, timing, and severity, and their predicted impacts on the nation's space infrastructure, the economy and society.

"We're trying to move away from just using crude modeling assumptions to make estimated impacts, toward trying to do integrated scientific engineering modeling where we use the best methods and link them to impacts on the population and businesses," explained Oughton.

Along with developing these novel tools, the grant's education component ensures that the next generation of aspiring scientists and engineers have a hand in learning and creating this critical foundation. Each summer, Oughton takes on a group of high school students as part of the Aspiring Scientists Summer Internship Program (ASSIP).

"This is one thing George Mason does an amazing job with," he said. Oughton had 25 ASSIP students this summer, working in groups led by his PhD students. "There's a whole ecosystem of keen scientists coming from these local, high-quality high schools. They develop research projects. They produce research papers: I have examples of students getting first author on papers in peer-reviewed research journals. There's so much magic happening there."

Dennies Bor, PhD student in earth systems and geoinformation sciences, has worked with Oughton on previous NSF grants and expects to support this project as well. "Working with Professor Oughton has strengthened my technical skills in modeling, programming, and data analysis, as well as my ability to communicate research...these experiences are helping prepare me for a career as a research scientist," he said.

The second NSF grant will support a workshop convening researchers from academia, industry, and government to identify critical gaps and develop an agenda to improve cybersecurity of space and nonterrestrial networks.

"We're seeing increased frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks on satellites, partially because the attack surface has massively expanded in recent years due to the huge expansion of global satellite constellations," said Oughton. "It's a rapidly evolving field, so we need to come together to sketch out what challenges these companies and organizations are facing and what are possible solutions for long-term security."

Between these two grants, Oughton and his team are demonstrating the importance of interdisciplinary thinking when it comes to extraterrestrial challenges. "As geography and geo-information scientists, we bring something different to the party, quantitatively tying together different disciplines to support decisions in industry and government" he said. "And I believe both of these grants are great examples of what George Mason can do."