Water + Weather for February 2026

Transcript

Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of February. Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines.

Statewide, February was drier and warmer than normal, a trend that has gripped the state since August last year. Near the end of February, 80 percent of the state was in drought, up 13 percentage points since late January. Storage in our water supply reservoirs was 73.6 percent of capacity, up half a percentage point from the end of January, but still more than nine percentage points below normal for this time of year. Drought conditions are expected to improve in the northeast but expand in the rest of the state through the end of May.

Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to 21st century averages for February. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. February was warmer and drier than normal, a pattern we have been in since August of last year.

That pattern lends itself to drought expansion. During February, drought expanded 13 percentage points and covered 80 percent of the state by the end of the month-the tan, orange, red, and maroon areas on this map. Nineteen percent of the state was classified as abnormally dry, as shown in yellow. These areas are at risk of slipping into drought in the next few weeks.

Statewide, surface water supplies ticked up half a percentage point in February. In this chart, the dark line shows storage this year compared to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2025 and 2024, and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. February's small increase essentially undid the small decline we saw in January. We are now two months into the year, and storage is essentially where we began the year. That puts us more than nine percentage points below normal for this time of year.

There is reason for some optimism. April, May, and June are generally wetter months for most of the state. So, what can we expect over the next few months? Through the end of May, the National Weather Service is predicting improvements in the northeast corner of the state. Some areas are even expected to transition out of drought. Unfortunately, drought is expected to persist and even expand in other areas of the state. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.