Offshore Wind Roadmap for Türkiye: Navigating Pathways to a Green Power Future

ISTANBUL, November 7, 2024 - The World Bank Group, in collaboration with the Republic of Türkiye's Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, launched a new roadmap today which outlines the way forward to establish a successful offshore wind industry in Türkiye.

The Offshore Wind Roadmap for Türkiye provides strategic analysis of the opportunities and challenges to deliver viable offshore wind projects, based on local insight and global experience. The Government of Türkiye has set a target of 5 GW of installed capacity for offshore wind power by 2035. The roadmap provides a comprehensive set of recommendations to help realise these ambitions to build a new industry that can meet Türkiye's future energy demands and sustainability goals.

This roadmap was created and funded as part of a series of offshore wind roadmap studies under the joint Energy Sector Management Assistance Program-International Finance Corporation (ESMAP-IFC) Offshore Wind Development Program, and with support from PROBLUE. The publication was launched at the 'Türkiye Offshore Wind Conference: Roadmap and Next Steps' event hosted in Istanbul by the World Bank in partnership with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources from November 7-8, 2024.

The roadmap highlights Türkiye's geographical advantages, natural resources and industrial strengths as key enablers for a competitive offshore wind power industry. Favourable offshore wind resources are located near high-demand power centres, offering a large-scale, domestic power generation source which can increase Türkiye's energy independence and complement other renewable technologies.

The analysis identifies Türkiye's strategic location, close to European and Asian markets, as an opportunity to become a regional clean energy hub. Türkiye's strong industrial base and skilled workforce, particularly its successful onshore wind, shipbuilding and maritime industries, are well-positioned to thrive in the offshore wind supply chain with sufficient project volume and pipeline.

Türkiye's waters have areas with a total technical potential offshore wind resource estimated at 75 GW. The roadmap outlines the potential for up to 7 GW of offshore wind capacity to be installed by 2040. It also examines the challenges of realizing these prospects. Most areas with good offshore wind resources are suited to floating foundations solutions, given water depths exceed 50 meters. These areas also have significant environmental and social sensitivities, requiring offshore wind projects to carefully plan and mitigate impacts on protected areas, biodiversity, critical habitats and local communities.

The scenarios in the report illustrate two hypothetical development paths for offshore wind in Türkiye:

• Low growth: which assumes 3.5 GW of offshore wind power is installed by the end of 2040. In this scenario, it is estimated that by 2030 supply chain activities could create 32,000 FTE (full time equivalent) jobs years and contribute $4 billion to Türkiye's economy. The low growth scenario could be achieved with moderate action by the Government, focusing on the first few small-scale projects.
• High growth: which assumes 7 GW of offshore wind power is installed by the end of 2040. In this scenario, it is estimated that supply chain activities could create 110,000 FTE years and $16 billion gross value added to Türkiye's economy.

To achieve these scenarios, the roadmap highlights 21 recommended actions for the Government of Türkiye to consider. This includes setting the country's vision beyond 2035 as part of long-term energy system planning; implementing regulatory and policy frameworks which proactively de-risk projects; establishing a bankable power purchase agreement (PPA); introducing best-practice health and safety standards; upgrading grid and port infrastructure; and development of domestic supply chains.

As part of the next steps forward, the World Bank is now supporting the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources to implement the 'Türkiye - European Union Instrument for PreAccession (IPA) Energy Sector Program Phase IV Project - Offshore Wind Support'. The objective of this project through to 2027 is to assist Türkiye to improve the investment potential for offshore wind energy generation by de-risking selected sites and reinforcing institutional capacities via measurement campaigns as well as providing technical, environmental, and social analysis.

Humberto Lopez, World Bank Country Director for Türkiye, said:

"Offshore wind, as an important renewable energy resource, holds the potential to accelerate Türkiye's transition to net-zero by complementing ongoing onshore wind and solar investment plans, drive supply chain growth and job creation, and strengthen the country's position as a green energy hub in the region. The World Bank has prepared a roadmap that we hope will inform Government policies and plans to meet Türkiye's installed capacity targets for offshore wind power. We now look forward to further collaboration to make it happen by establishing the policies and infrastructure for a successful offshore wind industry."

Sean Whittaker, Co-lead of the World Bank Offshore Wind Development Program, said:

"Türkiye has many areas with good natural conditions for offshore wind development. This roadmap provides detailed analysis of the opportunities and challenges involved in advancing this new source of domestic renewable energy. The roadmap provides key recommendations to fully realise this new source of domestic renewable energy, including policy development and planning for a pipeline of bankable projects which carefully mitigate environmental and social impacts."

Yasemin Orucu, Project Lead at the World Bank, said:

"A resilient, net-zero pathway powered by offshore wind can help Türkiye meet its development and climate goals while strengthening energy security. The roadmap highlights the opportunities for Türkiye's green transition to attract long-term investment, generate thousands of jobs and upskill the workforce in a future-focused industry. Strong partnerships between government, industry and communities will be crucial to delivering these goals."

Download the full roadmap here.

About the Roadmap for Türkiye

The roadmap was initiated by the World Bank country team in Türkiye under the umbrella of the World Bank Group's Offshore Wind Development Program which aims to accelerate offshore wind development in emerging markets. It was funded by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) in partnership with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and with support from the World Bank's blue economy program, PROBLUE.

The Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) requested support from the World Bank

in developing an offshore wind roadmap to provide inputs to the Türkiye's Power Development Plan and inform the Government on the potential role of offshore wind in Türkiye's future energy mix. The consultation process elicited feedback from a wide range of public and private stakeholders including the Turkish Offshore Wind Energy Association (DURED) and industry representatives.

The preparation of the roadmap builds on years of engagement with the Government of Türkiye and relevant agencies including training programs and study visits to established wind power markets through the first EU-funded IPA Energy Sector TA Project in Türkiye in 2017. Türkiye was also identified as one of eight key markets with high potential for offshore wind in the World Bank's 'Going Global - Expanding Offshore Wind to Emerging Markets' report published in October 2019.

The World Bank is now supporting the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources to implement the 'Türkiye - European Union Instrument for PreAccession (IPA) Energy Sector Program Phase IV Project - Offshore Wind Support'. The EUR 7.98 million project includes meteorological and oceanographic studies and measurements at specific offshore sites as well as technical, legislative and economic analysis.

About the World Bank Group's Offshore Wind Development Program

The joint ESMAP-IFC Offshore Wind Development Program aims to accelerate the uptake of offshore wind in emerging markets. It supports the inclusion of offshore wind into the energy sector policies and strategies of World Bank Group client countries.

The program was started in 2019 and is actively supporting governments around the world to explore their offshore wind development potential. For further information, visit: https://esmap.org/offshore-wind

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