Analysis: Health Insurance Marketplace premiums would more than double if enhanced premium tax credits expire

An analysis published Sept. 30 by KFF found that Health Insurance Marketplace enrollees who currently benefit from the enhanced premium tax credits would pay more than double their current premium payments if the EPTCs expire at the end of this year. KFF estimated that if Congress does not extend the tax credits, enrollees would see a 114% increase in premium payments, from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026. If Congress does extend the tax credits, KFF estimated enrollees would save $1,016 in premium payments on average in 2026. KFF said the projected increases are higher than previous estimates due to administration changes to tax credit calculations in the Marketplace Integrity and Affordability final rule and rising 2026 premiums.